Now that we’ve all given thanks to friends, family, and whatever blessings have come your way in a difficult year, it’s time to give thanks for the NFL Week 12, especially these three must-see matchups.
Overall this season, my picks are 20-13 straight up and 18-14 against the spread (with one push). Last week, the Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens made multiple boneheaded blunders against the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans that cost me straight-up wins and wins against the spread. Needless to say, I was displeased. But that’s in the past. Time to move forward with this week’s previews and picks.
Tennessee Titans (7-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3), 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
As I said before, both the Colts and Titans caught lucky breaks and made some of their own luck in rallying to win last week. This is a massive game in the division and the AFC playoff picture.
Derrick Henry is the focal point of Tennessee’s offense. He already had a really good game going before breaking off a 29-yard touchdown run to beat the Ravens in overtime. He’s averaging almost 108 rushing yards per game and is starting to find the form that led the Titans on a deep playoff run last year.
Ryan Tannehill has certainly been a big part of the offense as well. He has 22 touchdown passes this season and just four interceptions. He’s doing a much better job of making good decisions with the ball than his counterpart on the Colts, Philip Rivers.
Rivers had a very good game against the Ravens but still has eight interceptions with his 14 touchdown passes. Indy’s balance on running and passing is interesting because the team is not excelling at either one. Its top two running backs are averaging less than four yards per carry, and there isn’t a single receiver on the team with 400 receiving yards. Seven guys are between 225 and 385 receiving yards. The Titans, on the other hand, have two receivers with at least 540 receiving yards.
The battle between these two teams will likely be decided in the red zone.
The kickers, Stephen Gostkowski for the Titans and Rodrigo Blankenship for the Colts, will have a lot of pressure on them. Gostkowski has missed a lot of kicks this season but will be in a dome in ideal settings. Blankenship has made 23 of 26 this season but missed the only kick he attempted from 50 yards or more. Gostkowski has had an uncharacteristic 15 of 23 but has nailed six of seven attempts from at least 50 yards out.
The defense on the Colts is the real deal. It’s second-best in total yards allowed, fifth in total points allowed, fourth in defending the pass, third in defending the run, and fifth in scoring defense. The Titans will have to take advantage of opportunities. The team scores touchdowns on nearly 72% of its trips to the red zone and might not get many chances against the Colts’ elite defense.
The line: Indianapolis Colts (-4.0)
The pick: The Colts will be tough to beat, but I think the Titans can ride Henry and some timely Tannehill throws to victory. I’ll take the Titans to win as road underdogs.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4), 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs have looked fantastic this year.
Kansas City is second in yards per play and has the NFL’s top passing and scoring offense. The Chiefs are scoring on 53.1% of their possessions. That’s insane.
Patrick Mahomes has looked borderline unstoppable for much of the season. He’s averaging over 320 passing yards per game and has thrown 27 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. He also has a couple of rushing touchdowns and is second on the squad in rushing yards.
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are matchup nightmares. Hill leads the team with 10 touchdown catches, but Kelce is leading in targets, catches, receiving yards, and catches of at least 20 yards.
Tampa Bay has improved significantly on offense with Tom Brady under center and has made huge strides on defense as well.
The Buccaneers have the NFL’s sixth-best scoring offense despite a run game that’s ranked 26th out of 32 teams and a passing offense that’s ranked 11th. The defense is a big reason for that.
The team has a Top 10 scoring defense and a fantastic defensive front. It has the NFL’s best run defense but is only 16th against the pass. Tampa Bay is also forcing turnovers on nearly 15% of opponents’ drives.
How will the Buccaneers approach Mahomes? Will they throw out a lot of defensive backs to try and stop receivers? Will they stay in their normal defensive alignment? Will they send blitz after blitz to try and pressure Mahomes, move him out of the pocket, and disrupt his timing? It’s worth noting that the Buccaneers are tied for third in the NFL in sacks, with 32, but Mahomes has only been sacked 13 times this season.
Third-down and red-zone defense will be critical for both teams, especially the Buccaneers. The Chiefs convert on the third down over half the time, so the Buccaneers will need to step up if they want to get Mahomes off the field and give their own offense more chances to score.
Two categories in which the Buccaneers are outperforming the Chiefs are in red-zone offense and red-zone defense. The Buccaneers are scoring touchdowns on over 72.1% of the trips inside the 20, while the Chiefs are at 67.5%. Tampa Bay will need to score touchdowns in order to keep up with Kansas City’s high-octane offense.
Luckily for the Buccaneers, the Chiefs are dead last in the NFL in red-zone defense. They’re allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 75.9% of their trips to the red zone.
The line: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
The pick: The Chiefs basically wrapped up the AFC West title after coming from behind to beat the Raiders last week. They’ve now got their sights set on trying to chase down the Steelers for the top-seed first-round playoff bye. I’ll pick the Chiefs to win and cover.
Chicago Bears (5-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-3), 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
Either Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky could start at quarterback for the Bears on Sunday night, but it won’t make too much difference in terms of offensive production. The Bears have lost four games in a row. Calling the offense putrid would be generous, and Allen Robinson II is the only player worth watching on that side of the ball for Chicago.
They have the NFL’s second-worst scoring offense, the worst third-down conversion percentage, and the second-worst red-zone offense. They’re second to last in yards per play, 25th for passing offense, and dead last when it comes to running the ball. The Bears haven’t scored 24 points in a game since they rallied to beat the Atlanta Falcons in late September in the third week of the season.
Luckily for the Bears, the defense is outstanding. They lead the league in third-down defense and red-zone defense. They’re sixth in total points allowed and sixth in scoring defense, even though they’re 10th in defending the pass and 14th in defending the run.
The Packers are in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring defense, pass defense, and run defense. The offense is where this team shines. Green Bay has the league’s sixth-best passing offense and third-best scoring offense. Despite having a fantastic and versatile running back in Aaron Jones, the Packers haven’t had a 100-yard rusher since the second week of the season.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown 29 touchdown passes this season and only four interceptions. The frigid Green Bay weather could favor more of a ground approach, but Rodgers will be comfortable either way. His home splits are outstanding. He’s completing 69.6% of his passes at Lambeau Field this year, with 11 touchdown passes and only one pick.
The Packers blew a big lead last week and cost themselves valuable playoff positioning. Now, they’ll likely look to take those frustrations out on the Bears.
The line: Green Bay Packers (-8.5)
The pick: Green Bay is and should be heavily favored, but 8.5 points feel just a little steep for my liking in this NFC North matchup. I’ll take the Packers to win, but I’d grab the points.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
