In a recent column, I alluded to the political rationale for President Obama to take executive action on immigration. Briefly, it would be delivering on a promise to the base, with the hopes that any angry or overly aggressive reaction among Republicans would damage their prospects with Hispanics ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
But there’s also another factor to consider — that any such executive action will unify Republicans on an issue that’s typically the source of deep division with in the party, and it could make it easier for Republicans to explain to voters why they haven’t passed an immigration bill come 2016.
It’s worth remembering that whenever the possibility of immigration legislation comes before Congress, it ignites the conflict between the national GOP and grassroots conservatives like no other issue. Conservatives pounce on Republican leaders for any indication that they’re going to surrender on key principles, and Republican leaders wish conservatives would simmer down so as to not endanger their political strategy.
The moment Obama acts unilaterally on the issue (assuming he does), this dynamic will change. Republicans of all stripes will be united in their opposition against what they perceive to be another act of lawlessness by Obama, especially egregious following an election in which his party suffered a historic defeat.
Obama may think he can win over the public by arguing that House Republicans failed to act on immigration, so he was forced to step in. But I’m not so sure that argument will fly.
Throughout the Obama administration, liberals have been driven mad by the following narrative: Republicans block Obama’s policies, and then Obama gets tagged as being ineffective and uncooperative, and so it just encourages more lock-step opposition. In other words, in six years of trying, liberals have not been able to convince the general public that they should stop rewarding Republicans for being intransigent. So what makes liberals think they’ll win this argument now?
If and when Obama acts unilaterally, Republicans will be united in pushing the message that Obama sabotaged any effort at bipartisan compromise, and it’s quite possible that this view will carry the day. The public may not suddenly love Republicans, but they may still believe that Obama should do a better job of working with Congress rather than acting unilaterally.
One rationale behind executive action is that it would force Congress’s hand, but it’s more likely to let them off of the hook. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., won’t be as torn between the two wings of the party. Opponents of creating a legal pathway for those in the country illegally will be pleased if comprehensive immigration legislation is dead in Congress, and Republicans can argue to supporters of comprehensive reform that Obama “poisoned the well” and made any compromise impossible.
