A quick take on the Brussels terrorist attack

The central train station in Brussels, Belgium, was struck by a terrorist attack on Tuesday evening.

Shouting “Allahu Akbar,” at least one attacker appears to have detonated a small explosive device before being “neutralized” by soldiers. Some reports suggest the attacker was wearing an unexploded bomb belt, but that has not been confirmed at this time. Fortunately, beyond the terrorist, no casualties were suffered.

Belgian authorities are now securing a number of other train stations, but it is not clear whether the immediate threat has been resolved.

Still, this is just another reminder of the immense security challenge facing Belgium. As I noted in January 2015, and following the March 2016 Islamic State attacks on a Brussels airport and train station, Belgium’s jihadist challenge is deep rooted. Benefiting from a considerable base of self-segregated terrorist sympathizers, ISIS has been able to use Belgium as a key staging ground for its attack plots in Europe. When ISIS fighters or other jihadists are looking for a place to find safe haven and hide, they know to go to Belgium. Indeed, the fact that more attacks have not occurred in Western Europe testifies to the skill of British, French, German, and U.S. intelligence services.

Note, there, that I did not mention Belgium’s intelligence service.

Ludicrously, three years into the ISIS threat to the west, Belgium’s intelligence community remains hamstrung by a lack of coordination, leadership and political support. Belgium is heavily reliant on foreign partners to share intelligence that can protect its people.

Another problem?

As ISIS has moved to better separate its attack cells (think Paris attackers) from its support cells (bombmakers etc.), the ability of Belgium to detect and defeat plots has been impeded. Belgium has thousands of terrorist suspects on its radar. It cannot monitor all of them.

Equally problematic is the fact that Belgium’s Muslim population is, even by European standards, poorly integrated. This social dissection offers a vibrant breeding ground for Salafi-Jihadist ideology.

Of course, there is one positive from today’s incident. The attack does not appear to have injured or killed any civilians. That appears to be thanks to the quick reaction of a Belgian soldier who was on duty at the station. This speaks to something. As we saw in the recent stabbing rampage in London, the balance between civilian casualties and neutralized terrorists often falls on how quickly armed response forces can reach the scene. And while armed guards on street corners is an uncomfortable image for Europeans, the reality of the ISIS threat and the necessity of civil defense means things aren’t changing for the foreseeable future.

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