PHILADELPHIA — Statistics are fun, especially for Democrats. They like being able to spout catch numbers like “one in three” or “one in five” and leave it at that. But when one actually looks into the numbers they cite, one finds they aren’t accurate.
At the Democratic National Convention, the President of NARAL Pro-Choice America, Ilyse Hogue, explained that she had an abortion because she wasn’t ready at the time to have a family. She went on to cite a dated statistic to make it seem like very large numbers of American women are having abortions.
“My story is not unique,” Hogue said. “About one in three American women have abortions by the age of 45 and the majority of them are mothers just trying to take care of the families they already have.”
Later in her speech she said: “Give us accurate information.”
That goes both ways, though. It’s her business to ensure more American women choose abortion, which is why she’s going to use the simplest statistic she can to make abortion seem like a normal thing. But the statistic, like many cited by activists and politicians, is inaccurate.
It’s based on a survey from pro-abortion group Guttmacher Institute (which to their credit is fairly accurate in their studies, and include caveats when necessary). But Hogue did not include an important caveat — that the study is from 2008. At the time, it reflected a sharp decline in the incidence of first-time abortions among women aged 15 to 44, and it does not reflect the decline in the overall abortion rate since then.
“The organization is now coming up with a new calculation,” wrote the Washington Post’s fact checker when it analyzed the claim. “Without the breakdown of first-time abortions of women ages 15 to 44 in 2014, we can’t definitively say whether this statistic would increase or decrease, or by how much — though previous trends indicate it could decrease.”
Abortion rates have been declining in America for decades for many reasons, including more powerful contraceptives, morals surrounding abortion and laws that restrict the practice. Teen pregnancy and abortion rates especially have been declining, although such a decline might not have an effect on the overall total of women between the ages of 15 and 45 who have had an abortion.
Still, the rate is declining, so using the outdated statistic without any caveats is a problem. But why would that matter to a politician or activist? Cherry-picking inaccurate and dated statistics serves a political purpose, and won’t stop. “But until early 2017, when Guttmacher Institute plans to release the updated findings, this ‘one in three’ figure should be treated with caution and always accompanied by the appropriate caveat,” the Post concluded.
Ashe Schow is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
