Each election cycle, there is one factor that seems to drive support and participation all the way to victory: passion. When voters are enthusiastic, they will not only give pollsters their candidate preference but are very likely to pursue it at the polls on Election Day. This intensity can be just as powerful when voters are for a candidate as when they are against one. It is part of the reason that President Trump won in 2016.
Despite personal opinions about the commander in chief, it is clear that he elicits excitement and deep loyalty from his base. While President Barack Obama also garnered a massive, unquestioning following, not all candidates are able to do the same. Though Hillary Clinton enjoyed plenty of support from Democrats in 2016, especially women, her opponent seemed to enjoy a more intense backing. Clinton captured votes from those who believed she was qualified and would do well. Trump captured support from those who fervently believed that he absolutely had to win.
Joe Biden is maintaining a strong lead in national election polls, though the race may be tightening. Biden’s lead over the incumbent is no small feat. It has persisted for months. But whether or not this data translates into victory is another story entirely. And in the end, the added complication of a pandemic may actually help Trump’s chances and serve to hurt Biden’s.
The pandemic has become as political as any issue bandied about by voters. While Democrats are seen as more cautious, rule-abiding, and, in some cases, driven by fear, Republicans are more likely to scoff at state and local government restrictions and question extra precautions. That the crisis has not yet abated means it is sure to affect the presidential election directly, which is less than three months away. Any mildly observant individual can see that Republicans generally take the virus threat less seriously than their Democratic Party counterparts. They are more likely to head to the polls despite lingering fears. It is both personal opinion and passion that will drive them to do so.
Though Democrats may be resting somewhat comfortably on their laurels and on their poll numbers, they should not count on anything. As it stands now, the pandemic may aid Trump on Election Day despite very serious concerns some voters have with how he has handled the crisis. The media’s treatment of the president as it relates to the pandemic is seen by Republicans as overblown. They believe that cable news and pundits place too much blame on him. That will also help Trump more than hurt him, at least when it comes to igniting GOP voters to make their voices heard at the ballot box.
Even without a global health crisis, the voters’ fervor seems to be Trump’s for the taking. He is explosive, unpredictable, and unapologetic. His opponent comes across as more civil and safe. Those aren’t exactly characteristics that inspire unwavering devotion. Voters may prefer a candidate’s policies, but it is the emotional attachment to their personality and style that finally pushes them to work toward electing them. We saw it twice with Obama. We’ve seen it once, so far, with Trump.
A regular level of election year passion is enough to secure victory or, at the very least, make the presidential election a real contest instead of a landslide in either direction. This year, that passion not only exists as usual but is magnified by a pandemic. Republican voters are more likely to view the threat of Biden and Kamala Harris as worse than the threat of a pandemic that has infected almost 5.4 million people in the United States and killed nearly 170,000. The passion for their candidate and against any harsh restrictions on normal life may spell victory for the incumbent and defeat for his subdued opponent.
Of course, time will tell if all of this helps or hurts Trump. The 2016 election taught us not to assume anything. In the uncertain year that is 2020, the same is true.
Kimberly Ross (@SouthernKeeks) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog and a columnist at Arc Digital.
