The Sudanese military’s deposing of President Omar al-Bashir is a step in the right direction towards Sudan’s better future. But it’s only a small step, because those replacing Bashir are too much like him.
The coup follows five months of protests over rising living costs. While necessary subsidy reductions have caused some of the suffering here, Bashir has rightly been blamed for his 29-year mismanagement of the economy and his fostering of embedded corruption as a source of power. Fixing this malady will require a quick transition to the democratic rule of law. Only that course can attract much-needed foreign aid and direct investment (which has plummeted over the past 10 years). And only that course can lead to the kind of economic reforms that will be necessary to spark economic growth and boost Sudan’s top export industries: agriculture and gold.
Unfortunately, the opposite seems likely to happen.
Gen. Awad Ibn Ouf, the interim leader, is a deeply corrupt official who is intimately responsible for grotesque war crimes against the people of Darfur in western Sudan. Those crimes have cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women, and children. As a result, Ouf has been on U.S. sanctions lists for the past 12 years. While Ouf has now pledged to release all political prisoners, he also says the military will retain power for at least the next two years. And Ouf has also announced a 10 p.m. curfew and a three-month emergency declaration. This would seem designed to give cover for a crackdown on civil society activists.
What do the activists think of all this?
They’re not backing down. Alaa Salah, who this week became a poster woman for the anti-government protesters, has been eloquently tweeting her rejection of the military’s seizure of power. Salah was continuing to protest on Thursday evening for a civilian-led transitional council to assume power.
The next question, then, is what the military does next: Does it move to compromise with the protesters, perhaps offering joint representation on the transition council? Or does it resort to that which it knows best: a violent crackdown?
As the protests continue, we’re about to find out. But if a crackdown follows, human suffering may escalate dramatically. For that reason, President Trump should implore the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to warn the military against any use of force. Those American allies are top Sudanese export destinations. The military cannot afford to isolate them.
