For those imagining that a November defeat will expunge President Trump, think again. Nothing prevents him from running in 2024, and no clear evidence exists that there is a Republican capable of beating him.
Recent poll numbers have not been promising for Trump. Gallup’s latest results showed his approval rating down to 38%, which is 11 points below his Gallup personal high in early May. Considering his improbable 2016 win, in which he lost the popular vote but handily won the electoral vote by virtually sweeping all the close contests, Trump has little margin for error.
These factors have raised hopes in establishment Republican circles that Trump could be bounced from the White House and their lives. To paraphrase Gerald Ford, their long national nightmare would be over, and the party would be returned to their control.
The problem is that the Republican establishment is thinking as establishments always do: conventionally. If there is one thing that Trump is not, and never will be, it is conventional. So, projecting forward on a conventional trajectory, even following a 2020 defeat, is a major mistake. Trump easily could return in 2024 and retain his de facto party leader position in the interim.
Such a scenario is hardly impossible. Trump is not constitutionally barred from seeking the presidency a third time — the Constitution only prohibits someone from holding the office for three terms. Historically, several candidates have been renominated following defeats. Grover Cleveland even won the presidency again after losing it.
The usual reasons why presidential candidates retire relate to age, support, and relevance. However, current circumstances, and Trump’s unconventional profile, could nullify all three. Regarding age, 2020 has widened the window for Washington leaders. Trump would be the same age at a 2025 inauguration as former Vice President Joe Biden would be in a 2021 inauguration. He would be the same age as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is now.
Trump also still retains much support within the party. Gallup’s poll showed 91% of Republicans supporting him now despite his low overall support numbers. As for relevance, Trump is a media monster, generating coverage and self-generating direct contact with tens of millions via social media.
Should Biden win, his presidency will be extremely difficult. Having consigned his agenda to the Left in order to win the nomination and motivate the Democratic base in November, he will be forced to govern from that direction. The electorate has given short shrift to Democratic predecessors far less progressive than Biden now professes to be. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were drubbed in their first midterm elections, both losing Congress during their presidencies.
Regardless, chances are Biden would be on the ballot again in 2024. Democrats are likely to stick with Biden because they are largely stuck with him. The last incumbent foregoing reelection was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968, and regardless of overall popularity, parties do not deny incumbents renomination — both Jimmy Carter and Herbert Hoover also received them. Nor do Democrats have anywhere else to turn. They chose Biden because they lacked establishment alternatives.
On the Republican side, Trump’s odds are even better if he comes back in 2024. He already demolished the Republican establishment in 2016. His enormous public following makes 2022 midterm candidates likely to seek his support, thus earning him political credibility as Republicans likely do well. Additionally, any 2024 challengers will only serve to split the anti-Trump wing, thus bolstering Trump.
Regardless of Trump’s shortcomings, he effectively short-circuited the Republican establishment. He also showed an ability to expand Republicans’ presidential reach geographically, something the party must replicate. The takeaway for establishment Republicans should not be that 2020 defeat will take Trump away from them, but that they cannot remain who they were and win back either the party or the White House.
J.T. Young served under President George W. Bush as the director of communications in the Office of Management and Budget and as deputy assistant secretary in legislative affairs for tax and budget at the Treasury Department. He served as a congressional staffer from 1987 to 2000.
