The Kremlin is challenging the United States and Europe to live up to their words and retaliate over the poisoning of Alexei Navalny. Vladimir Putin is gambling that European Union business interests and U.S. political interests will obstruct such action.
An investigative journalist and political dissident, Navalny was attacked with a highly concentrated Novichok-class nerve agent on Aug. 20 as he traveled in Siberia. After an inexcusable delay ordered by the Kremlin, Navalny was finally transported to a German hospital where he is now recuperating.
As I have documented, the overwhelming evidence points to Putin’s direct culpability in Navalny’s poisoning. Only Putin could have authorized Novichok’s use against Navalny, and only the big three Russian intelligence services; the GRU, SVR, and FSB have access to that nerve agent. Regardless, it’s clear that the Kremlin is confident that the EU and U.S. won’t follow through on their demands for a serious Russian investigation into Navalny’s incident.
Evincing this confidence, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday teased the German government. “We hope that all the same, the partners will understand the futility of talking with us,” Lavrov continued, “from the position of a certain supreme being who does not even bother to answer legal questions based on international conventions.” This is Lavrov at his most arrogant and disdainful, amused at what he perceives as an unwillingness by the West to hold Putin’s government to account. But Lavrov has some reason to be confident. The Russians recognize European business sentiments are now firmly in favor of relaxing sanctions that were imposed on Russia following its 2014 seizure of Crimea from Ukraine. Certainly, they are opposed to new sanctions. At the same time, Putin is aware that President Trump wants to maintain a degree of cordiality in relations in anticipation of nuclear arms talks next year.
Regardless of the motives for tolerating this assassination attempt, an accounting must occur.
While Navalny is a Russian citizen who was attacked on Russian soil, the use of chemical weapons such as Novichok is explicitly illegal under the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russia is a signatory to that convention. Considering the capacity of chemical weapons to cause immense suffering and great societal harm, it is in American and European interests to establish a deterrent principle against their use. This is why, for example, Trump was right to correct President Barack Obama’s mistake and hold Bashar Assad responsible for his use of nerve agents against his own people (even if Trump now, in light of ongoing attacks, appears to have forgotten about the issue).
Lavrov’s derision should be proved as undue. The U.S. and EU should band together to deliver a message of rebuke that will reverberate throughout the Kremlin. Namely, by extinguishing Putin’s Nord Stream II gas pipeline.
