Israel’s confusing election results may cause several weeks of short-term political confusion within that tiny but courageous nation, but there is already a clear message both to U.S. President Barack Obama and to enemies who would destroy the Jewish state. That message is this: Israel, more than ever, won’t be pushed around or manipulated; and terrorism against Israel will be swiftly and lethally punished.
How can results that are confusing even for long-time observers of Israeli politics be so clear outside it? Because even though no one party there earned even a full quarter of the seats in Israel’s parliament – meaning that it will take a while to figure out who will be prime minister – the hawkish parties on the right hold the unambiguous balance of power, with at least 64 of the 120 seats. By contrast, the left-centrist Kadima Party managed to remain competitive only by displaying its own brand of hawkishness in launching last month’s successful military offensive against Hamas terrorists in Gaza.
Simple arithmetic shows the only way Kadima’s Tzipi Livni can slip the prime ministership away from favorite Benjamin Netanyahu is by cutting a deal with the hard-right party led by Avigdor Lieberman. The once-powerful Labor Party, meanwhile, always the standard-bearer of the Israeli left, garnered only 13 seats, an all-time low. Regardless of who actually becomes prime minister, then – and the most likely scenario is that it will be the strongly conservative Netanyahu – government policy will certainly shift rightward. What that means is there will be far less willingness to trade land for a spurious peace, and more willingness to take military action against terrorists or rogue states such as Iran and Syria.
Israel’s move rightward comes just as Obama seeks to re-establish direct contact with Iran and formal diplomatic relations with Syria, two of Israel’s mortal enemies. Indeed, Israel’s voters quite clearly took Obama’s more friendly attitudes toward Arab/Muslim states into account when making their choices. Many Israelis fear the United States under Obama may be less supportive of Israel than in the past, so they voted for self-reliance. They will not let Obama push them meekly into more concessions. If need be, they will fight. The best way for Obama to proceed then is to use any new dialogue with Iran and Syria to convince them that their own best interests lie in recognizing Israel’s permanent and unquestioned legitimacy – and by ceasing all hostilities against the Jewish state.
