Despite his solid showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg had no further path to acquiring a significant portion of Democratic delegates, even in the case of a contested convention. Thus, he dropped out of the race prior to the crucial Super Tuesday race. And in doing so, he may have just reopened a path to the nomination for Joe Biden and his recently salvaged campaign.
On Saturday, Biden blew out his competitors in the South Carolina primary, not only winning most delegates but also proving his dominance among black voters, a bellwether of Democratic success since Michael Dukakis. But between Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’s recent national surge and Michael Bloomberg spending half a billion to cut into Biden’s moderate lane, Biden seemed nonviable in too many states to win a significant portion of Super Tuesday delegates. Buttigieg, however, may have just given him the opening he needs.
South Carolina and state-specific polling indicated that Biden was probably already on the rise in some southern states. But in California, he seemed likely to miss the 15% threshold at which delegates are awarded. Meanwhile, he didn’t seem quite dominant enough to ensure wins in states such as North Carolina.
According to Morning Consult, although a 21% plurality of Buttigieg supports deem Sanders their second choice, another 19% would go for Biden or Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Even just one-fifth of Buttigieg’s support could help Biden cross the 15% threshold in vital districts or even the state of California. That’s significantly better for Biden’s prospects in winning delegates, whereas Sanders would enjoy only a marginal benefit from whatever contingent of Buttigieg’s voters that turn to the Vermont socialist. Sanders already has a significant margin over that 15% in the states he needs. If Biden’s at the cusp, then he has the most to gain from additional Buttigieg voters.
One must also keep in mind that many early voters in California and other states have already cast their vote for Mayor Pete and cannot get it back. Still, Buttigieg’s departure marks yet another strange and unexpected twist in a wild, unpredictable race.
