Donald Trump is at 36 percent in a recent poll, and Philip Bump at the Washington Post has a piece up about why that is important.
But here’s the thing: the poll is not very important at all, for many reasons.
1) It’s a national poll — there’s no such thing as a national primary.
National polls are helpful very early in the primary season. In 2008, 59 days out, Rudy Giuliani was easily in first place nationwide, with double-digit leads on McCain, Romney and Huckabee. He went nowhere. In 2012, Cain was the leader nationally, but Romney was the leader in New Hampshire. It’s a messy picture historically, but leading in national polls does not correlate very strongly with winning Iowa or New Hampshire, but winning Iowa and New Hampshire strongly influence your performance in the national polls.
2) It was 435 registered voters
The CNN poll didn’t screen for likely voters. Again, registered voters polls are kind of informative way out from an election, when pollsters can’t even screen for likely voters. But within two months of voting, only the likely-voter polls should matter.
3) Still, Trump is winning
Still, Trump leads in Iowa polls, New Hampshire polls and national polls. He also leads in likely voter polls. My point: the 36 percent number, and the relative position of the lower candidates in this CNN poll shouldn’t be taken too seriously.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
