If the premise of an argument is false, what does that tell you about its conclusions?
This is the problem facing Elizabeth Warren and other leading Democrats after the first presidential primary debate. Warren, Cory Booker, Beto O’Rourke, and other candidates all apparently believed that in order to sell their socialism, they needed to establish the premise that the Trump-era economy simply isn’t working for anyone besides the filthy rich.
Warren says that the U.S. economy is “doing great, for a thinner and thinner slice at the top.” O’Rourke and Booker made a similar claim: that the wealthy are pulling away and leaving behind the working class in today’s economy.
But this premise is false. Yes, the past 60 years have seen deadly stagnation for the working class. But over the past few years, the U.S. economy has been lifting all boats. It’s been a remarkable thing to watch because it is so unusual.
Hourly wages have risen by 7% since President Trump took office. And the hourly wage has risen far more among blue-collar workers. Production and nonsupervisory workers have seen an 11% increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This is just one telling data point undermining the claim of supposed wonk Elizabeth Warren. There are plenty of others.
For starters, the unemployment rate is a startlingly low 3.8%. That means fewer people are out of work. Since the low rate has persisted for many quarters, there has been a bidding war for labor. Throw in the expanding size of the labor force, and suddenly employers are desperate for workers. That’s good for workers, better than it’s been in anyone’s recent memory.
We don’t believe that Trump’s tariffs are helping. We don’t believe presidents control the economy. We do think tax cuts and deregulation help.
But regardless of the causes behind the boost to the working class, the fact that this economy is good and is working not only for wealthiest Americans is indisputable.
So how is it a winning tactic to tell the blue-collar workers, who are seeing their lots improve, that in fact their lives are going downhill? Will they believe the candidates who make such claims?
We have our suspicions, but maybe the answer is this simple: To sell bad policy, you need to start with a false premise.
