There are few better examples of the power of the progressive base in the Democratic Party than Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s decision to back a filibuster on the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Neil Gorsuch. No Senate minority leader as shrewd and experienced as Schumer would make such an ill-advised move unless the pressure of the base were overwhelming.
First, it’s certain that in the face of a Democratic filibuster the Republicans will resort to the so-called nuclear option, changing the Senate rules for Supreme Court nominations so that they can be approved with a simple majority. Schumer’s strategy might have been sensible if the Republicans were divided; in that case, he could hope that a few Republicans would object to permanently changing Senate rules in order to seat an inferior nominee. But Gorsuch is such a stellar candidate that no Republican senator will break ranks.
Second, there are at least 10 Senate Democrats up for re-election in 2018 who are running in states that President Trump won in 2016, putting their re-election in danger if they filibuster Gorsuch. A vote against Gorsuch is likely to become a litmus test of whether a Democrat is a moderate—as most would like to claim—or a tool of the progressives, unwilling to listen to or support the views of the more moderate or conservative voters who went for Trump in 2018.
Schumer must be assuming that the anger of the progressives, on exhibit today, will save these candidates in 2018. But reliance on a progressive wave seems fanciful in an off-year election, and previous gambles that support for Obamacare would turn out massive numbers of progressive voters in off-year elections have turned out to be disastrous for the Democratic Party at every level.
Finally, forcing the Republicans to eliminate the filibuster for Supreme Court nominations frees Donald Trump’s hand if—as is likely—there is another nomination opportunity during his presidency. Once the 60-vote rule is broken, Trump will not have to be judicious about his next nominee. Just about any conservative will gain a majority in a Republican Senate, even if he or she doesn’t meet the Gorsuch standard.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been widely praised among Republicans for denying a hearing for Merrick Garland. It was a gamble, to be sure, but McConnell’s bet was that a nomination fight over Garland would bring progressives to the polls in presidential election year, endangering his slim Senate majority. He won that bet.
What he couldn’t imagine is that the Democratic base would be so enraged by the 2016 outcome that they would force other endangered Senate Democrats to walk the plank in 2018.
Peter Wallison is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was White House counsel in the Reagan administration.
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