Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in Hungary on Monday to strengthen ties with the NATO member and U.S. ally. But his visit highlights a clear difficulty for the U.S.: pushing back on undemocratic allies while countering overtures from Russia and China. That’s a fine line to walk. Too much pressure to reform and undemocratic leaders will look elsewhere for support, too little and a country may lose its democracy for good.
These tensions were on display during Pompeo’s press conference with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. Talking up the danger of growing ties between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pompeo warned, “We must not let Putin drive wedges between friends in NATO.” He later cautioned, “Russia’s not the only power that wants to erode freedom in this region” adding that he had already discussed with Szijjarto “the dangers of allowing China to gain a bridgehead in Hungary.”
But foreign influence is not the only U.S. concern in Hungary. Under Orban the Central European country that was once held as a clear example of post-Soviet democratic success has slipped into a would-be authoritarian state. The Fidesz party, under Orban’s leadership, has rewritten election laws, stripped the courts of their independence, turned independent media into state propaganda, and forced a U.S.-accredited university to relocate to Vienna.
As an ally and NATO member, the U.S. tried to keep Hungary close while also pushing for reforms. During his visit Pompeo met with opposition leaders and noted during the press conference, “I met with Hungarian civil society leaders as well to talk about the importance of protecting and strengthening democratic institutions throughout the Western world.”
But those statements and the symbolic importance of meeting with opposition leaders are somewhat overshadowed by other efforts from Washington to boost relations with Orban.
For example, despite Pompeo’s talk of freedom, the U.S. has cut money for a State Department program that would have funded independent journalism in Hungary. Likewise, U.S. Ambassador David Cornstein has tried to play nice with Orban and refused to call out the trail of abuses taking place in the country. Despite those attempts to push the government to lessen its stranglehold on society, however, Orban shows few signs of giving ground.
Worse, Hungary doesn’t seem quite ready to make a choice between the U.S. and its powerful potential backers in Moscow and Beijing. At the press conference, Szijjarto made the government’s position clear: “When it comes to cooperation with Russia or cooperation with the People’s Republic of China, that doesn’t endanger us being a reliable partner to the United States and to NATO.”
Although Hungary is in the public eye as the result of Pompeo’s trip, the country is not unique in presenting a foreign policy challenge for the U.S. over the balance between applying pressure for freedom and not pushing allies away entirely.
In Myanmar, for example, the U.S. failed to take a stronger line against ethnic cleansing carried out against the Rohingya Muslims for fear of losing influence in the country entirely to Beijing.
As Russia and China offer alternatives to the United States, Washington is losing its ability to hold allies accountable. Why should a would-be authoritarian leader hand over power at American urging when another power is all too happy to back up his regime?
How Pompeo and President Trump answer that pivotal question will determine the trajectory of U.S. foreign relations for years to come, and likely the breakdown of new alliances in an increasingly multi-polar world.
