Former aides from Bernie Sanders’s second presidential bid may have revolted against the Vermont senator’s pledge to back Joe Biden, but it sure doesn’t seem like any significant portion of Sanders’s supporters will follow suit.
In 2016, 20% of Sanders fans swore they’d vote for President Trump over Hillary Clinton, but on Election Day, half that number actually did so. If that trend followed a 2020 poll showing 15% of Sanders supporters claiming they wouldn’t back Biden, then even fewer would actually vote for Trump come November. A new Pew Research poll indicates the total number of defectors may be smaller still.
Even with the wounds of the 2020 primary still raw, 85% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters report that they’ll back Biden, including the 89% of voters dismayed that the nominee is a septuagenarian white guy. Six percent of those not bothered by that fact, presumably Sanders supporters, say they’ll back Trump, as opposed to 4% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who say so.
Yes, #NeverBidenNeverTrump has remained trending on Twitter. But Twitter isn’t real life, and the polls still indicate that it’s just a twitter trend.
That’s not to say that a larger segment of defectors won’t eventually materialize. But right now, the number of Bernie Bros who look like they’ll actually vote for Trump, just as in 2016, seems more like a media phenomenon than an actually significant electoral coalition.
