Europe has become the key battleground between the democratic West and the authoritarian East. Having triumphed in three European wars, two hot and one cold, the United States now faces a much more complex and prolonged conflict over the future of the old continent with its two chief global adversaries: Russia and China. Both are expansionist powers that threaten Western interests, and both have focused their attention on subordinating Europe. Their ambitions highlight the need for maintaining a strong trans-Atlantic alliance.
While President Trump has periodically downplayed the importance of NATO, without Allied solidarity in a range of contests, including military, cyberspace, and democracy protection, America will be increasingly exposed to hostile actions by Beijing and Moscow. If Europe becomes entrapped by China and divided by Russia, then the U.S. will find itself increasingly isolated and vulnerable.
Although Vladimir Putin’s Russia remains the major near-term menace, China presents a more pernicious long-term threat. Russia is a revisionist aggressor focused on dividing and weakening the trans-Atlantic world, but its capabilities are declining, and its internal contradictions are escalating. China is a steadily advancing global competitor with a large economy and a more durable strategy to subvert Europe and surpass America.
Unlike Russia’s failing Eurasian Economic Union enforced over a handful of poor neighbors, China’s pancontinental ambitions are backed by substantial resources. Its spreading influence is based primarily on economic penetration that is leveraged for geopolitical advantage. Its global ambitions are encapsulated in the Belt and Road initiative, aimed at developing land and sea corridors for Chinese products and leverage through Central Asia and Europe, and its “17+1” program enmeshing 17 European states.
In exchange for economic investments, Beijing extracts diplomatic support for its policies and neutralizes criticisms of its abysmal human rights record. Beijing offers to boost poor economies, but its investments entrap governments in perpetual debt. Similarly to Russia, China also blackmails or bribes vulnerable politicians and businessmen to favor Chinese policies, conducts cyberpenetration of Western institutions and companies, and is ramping up its disinformation warfare campaign against the U.S.
NATO remains the primary trans-Atlantic pillar that counters Europe’s potential subordination to Russian or Chinese interests. It has acted in unison to fortify its eastern flank and has developed a broad arsenal of deterrents, and not only in the military arena. It has established several Centers of Excellence in Europe that rigorously monitor and analyze a range of threats, from terrorism to cyber and disinformation. Such work is indispensable for responding to the eclectic forms of contemporary warfare. NATO is the key institution that upholds American geopolitical influence throughout Europe and projects these to nearby regions such as Eurasia and the Middle East while adapting to counteract new threats.
Western allies must also revisit and revise their economic links with Beijing in order to protect their collective national security. In the wake of the pandemic, several American and European companies are likely to vacate China and seek more reliable partners closer to home. Growing suspicion over China’s economic and political objectives should also diminish Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative. The EU must become more effective in screening foreign investment, having already declared China a “systemic rival” and “strategic competitor,” and boost Western investments in struggling economies.
Given the escalating global crises in the wake of the pandemic, a rudderless Western alliance will become much more vulnerable to both Russian and Chinese subversion. This could weaken trans-Atlantic unity, provoke renewed conflicts in Europe, embolden Beijing’s and Moscow’s ambitions in other critical regions, and endanger American security. However, the strategic tables can be turned on the two adversaries if there is vision and determination in the White House, particularly as both Russia and China have their own deep-rooted frailties.
In the case of Moscow, a strategy must be developed to divert its attention away from external offense to internal defense. Russia has numerous economic, social, political, cyber, ethnic, religious, and regional vulnerabilities that have been revealed by the collapse of oil prices and the spreading pandemic. China will also undergo economic contraction and a potential loss of markets across Europe and Eurasia as a consequence of COVID-19. This can generate social and political struggles that preoccupy the ruling Communist Party. Washington must also drive wedges between Moscow and Beijing, as their looming competition over Central Asia and Russia’s Asian provinces can severely damage their strategic partnership against the West.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis in D.C. His recent book, co-authored with Margarita Assenova, is entitled Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, published by the Jamestown Foundation in D.C.
