Donald Trump has been pretty consistent about the possibility he will run for president as an independent. He wants to run as a Republican, Trump says, but if he is not “treated fairly” in the primaries, he might bolt the GOP for a third-party run. (Trump, of course, will decide what constitutes being “treated fairly.”)
But not too long ago, in a July 7 phone conversation, Trump not only said he preferred to run as a Republican but discussed at some length the damage a third-party run would do to the chances a Republican, or anyone else, would have of defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016.
I had gotten in touch with Trump because I was curious why he wasn’t already running as an independent. Much about his run suggests third party: 1) He isn’t dependent on the GOP’s fundraising machine; 2) His appeal is anti-politician, against both Democrats and Republicans; and 3) He attracts supporters who are disgusted with both parties. It’s a classic recipe for a third-party run.
Trump told me that even though “there are many people who have asked me to run as a third party,” his “sole focus is to run as a Republican.” The reason, he explained, is “the fact that I believe that is the best way we can defeat the Democrats.”
“Having a two-party race gives us a much better chance of beating Hillary and bringing our country back than having a third-party candidate,” Trump said.
At that point, I asked Trump about Ross Perot’s 1992 third-party run for president. Perot won 19 percent of the popular vote in the year that Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush with just 43 percent. Did Trump believe Perot was a spoiler in that race?
“Totally,” Trump said. And then:
I think — I don’t believe a word of the critics that say that [Perot] got 50-50 vote. I think every single vote that went to Ross Perot came from Bush, from the Bush camp. And I think frankly, that it was amazing to me that they didn’t convince Ross Perot not to run. But Ross Perot, I believe that virtually every one of his 19 percentage points came from the Republicans … I believe that if Ross Perot didn’t run, you would have never heard of Bill Clinton. And I have no question in my mind about that.
That seemed pretty definitive: Trump sees Perot’s third-party run as having killed the Republican’s chance of winning. (As Trump noted, many political observers disagree, arguing Perot took votes from Bush and Clinton roughly equally, but the point is, Trump believes Perot killed Bush’s chances.) In addition, Trump suggests that Republicans should have somehow stopped Perot from mounting a third party bid: It was amazing to me that they didn’t convince Ross Perot not to run.
Now, Trump — running against another Bush, no less — is leaving the door open to a third-party bid of his own. “If I’m not treated fairly, we’ll see what happens,” he said in Michigan Tuesday night. The question is whether — if it comes to that — anyone could convince him not to run, and not repeat the damage he believes Perot did to the Republican Party.
