The coming establishment Republican ad assault on Donald Trump will likely focus on one main charge: He’s not a conservative. Most of Trump’s critics on the right have made that point at one time or another, and a preview of future attacks — the anti-Trump ads run by the Club for Growth political action committee in Iowa in September — focused on Trump’s conservative apostasy.
“Which presidential candidate supports higher taxes, national health care, and the Wall Street bailout?” the ad asked. “It’s Donald Trump.” The spot went on to say that Trump “has a record, and it’s very liberal” and that he is “playing us [conservatives] for chumps.”
Which leads to the question: Will a campaign slamming Trump as a non-conservative actually work in the context of today’s Republican race? There’s evidence to suggest it won’t.
Related Story: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2574118/
The problem is that an ad accusing Trump of not being a conservative will appeal almost exclusively to GOP voters who are strongly conservative. But those voters are mostly already supporting other candidates. Trump’s base of support lies elsewhere, and might end up largely unaffected by a he’s-not-one-of-us ad campaign.
The short version of the problem could be this: An attack ad says Trump is not a conservative. Trump supporters — and other possible GOP voters, as well — say, that’s OK, we’re not conservatives, either.
A just-released Wall Street Journal-NBC poll has some evidence to support that possibility. The poll divided the Republican electorate into those who described themselves as very conservative, those who described themselves as somewhat conservative, and those who described themselves as moderate, or even liberal. (That last group makes up about 30 percent of the GOP electorate.) Trump has significantly higher support among moderate Republicans than among conservatives; he is the candidate of 31 percent of moderates, versus only 20 percent of those who call themselves very conservative. (Ben Carson, in contrast, is the choice of just 14 percent of GOP moderates, and 28 percent of those who call themselves very conservative.)
National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar has noted that Trump’s voters “aren’t Republican rank-and-file,” and are “more moderate, more secular, [and] more blue collar.” Which means, according to Kraushaar:
And there could be more: Beyond Republicans, it seems fair to say that Trump’s positions might appeal to some independents, too.
So what does that mean for an anti-Trump ad campaign? It could mean that the strategy currently on the drawing board won’t work, and might instead backfire on the conservatives who want to push Trump out of the race.
