Climate change isn’t driving mass migration

Andrew Sullivan has an otherwise fine blog post up that takes President Biden to task for creating chaos on the southern border with his catch and release policies. This passage was particularly good:

The optics are also terrible — and compound a sense that the Biden administration is losing control of events. The scenes of death and mayhem in Kabul merge too easily in the mind with the squalor and disorder in Del Rio. Factor in the faltering vaccine program, and the prevaricating, incomprehensible shit-show of this Congress, and you can see how the image of a doddering incompetent in the White House is beginning to stick. And once that image imprints itself, it’s hard to escape it.

Worse: the immigration debate reflects an elite that simply cannot imagine why most normal citizens think that enforcing a country’s borders is not an exercise in white supremacist violence, but a core function of any basic government.

However, he does get one thing wrong earlier in his post when he writes:

There are some short-term factors behind this: earthquakes, natural disasters, political unrest, Covid, gang warfare, and economic stagnation. But there is also a long-term one: climate change, the impact of which on migration from the south to the north is increasingly felt across the globe.

Climate change is not causing global mass migration. What is? Here is a quick snippet from an article on the recent Haitian migration surge:

For the final leg of his journey from Chile to the United States, Haitian migrant Fabricio Jean followed detailed instructions sent to him via WhatsApp from his brother in New Jersey who had recently taken the route to the Texas border.

His brother wired him money for the trip, then meticulously mapped it out, warning him of areas heavy with Mexican immigration officials.

“You will need about 20,000 pesos (about $1,000 U.S. dollars) for the buses. You need to take this bus to this location and then take another bus,” recounted Jean, who spoke to The Associated Press after reaching the border town of Del Rio.

Climate change isn’t driving mass migration, technology is — specifically smartphones. A decade ago, very few people in emerging economies had cellphones. Now, many do. This means they can see how well their relatives are living in the United States. Their relatives can let them know if work is available before they leave. Their relatives can communicate to them how to best get into the country.

As bad as things are in countries like Guatemala, Honduras, and Brazil, these countries are getting richer, and more and more of their citizens are getting smartphones. And when they do, more and more of them will want to come here. This is why it is so important that we end catch and release policies on the southern border.

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