On Monday, a major U.S.-South Korean military exercise will get underway in South Korea.
One of two annual exercises, Monday’s events will involve tens of thousands of U.S. personnel and hundreds of thousands of South Koreans. Its purpose is simple but solemn: preparing to defeat any North Korean invasion of South Korea.
Normally, the exercise attracts little notice outside of the Korean peninsula. But this year things are different.
After all, this year’s training takes place amidst an increasingly unrestrained war of words between North Korea and the United States.
And some are now calling for the U.S. to offer an olive branch to Kim Jong Un. Speaking to the New York Times, Adam Mount of the Center for American Progress, suggested that the exercises be cancelled or scaled down. “There is” Mount said, “an opportunity here to put an offer on the table … we absolutely should be considering ways to modify their scope.”
I disagree.
For a start, I think Mount underestimates the threat North Korea poses. In a recent interview with CBS, Mount described the current situation as a “manufactured crisis” by the Trump administration.
In contrast, I believe Trump is absolutely correct in pushing this issue up the agenda. Both George W. Bush and Barack Obama failed to give North Korea’s emerging ballistic missile program the attention it demanded. In so, they allowed that capability to reach the point it is at now: in a position to deliver thermonuclear annihilation against the U.S. homeland. President Trump is right to regard this threat as intolerable.
But while everyone agrees that diplomacy is the preference here, the challenge is how to move the diplomatic needle. It is my opinion that cancelling these exercises would do nothing to move the needle in a positive direction.
First off, it would reward North Korea for nothing. While it’s true that Kim Jong Un this week backed away from his threats to fire missiles at Guam, he has not yet signaled any interest in serious negotiations. By suspending this defensive training mission, the U.S. would signal weakness to a man who thrives on it.
Second, it would send the wrong signal to China. As I’ve explained, successfully influencing China is the first and absolute priority for successful diplomacy. In recent weeks, we have seen an increasingly tough stance from China toward North Korea. But it’s important to remember that this stance didn’t spring from the ether. Instead, it is a product of China’s growing concern that Trump will use military force unless it cracks down on Pyongyang. In that vein, were the U.S. to cancel these exercises, Trump would suggest to China that it has done enough. And it hasn’t.
Third, while these military training drills do have a public relations deterrent message, they are also about preparing to fight and win the next Korean war. Each year, thousands of U.S. and South Korean personnel rotate in and out of various military commands in South Korea. To ensure that the alliance is able to defeat a North Korea invasion, new personnel must be confident in their ability to work with old to know what to do if the worst does come. These exercises help perfect those capabilities. Without them, we risk lives and South Korean soil.
This isn’t to say that a future deal with North Korea must not involve reforms to U.S. military exercises. Nevertheless, those reforms must come as part of a final deal, not before it. The stakes are great and the margin for error is small. But at this moment, the exercises must absolutely go ahead.
