With Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky both putting a wet blanket over peace talks, it seems that the main players are fully convinced their strategies will prevail.
For Putin, the new strategy is similar to the old strategy. Except, that is, that the new objectives are such that the Russian army actually has the possibility of achieving them. The idea of overthrowing the Ukrainian government and replacing it with a pro-Moscow supplicant could still be rattling inside Putin’s head. But for the time being at least, kicking Ukrainian troops out of the Donbas region and extending the administrative lines of the so-called independent republics in the east is the name of the game. This “second phase” of the operation, while far less fantastical than Moscow’s original campaign plan, will be no less resource-intensive to a Russian military that has seen about a quarter of its combat force in Ukraine destroyed over the war’s first two months.
Putin is betting on a Russian victory. And the purported capture of the coastal city of Mariupol after a two-month siege is giving the Russian leader something to brag about. But the more ground that Russia is able to take, the more likely it is that Russia’s earlier embarrassments around Kyiv will be forgotten. That will also give Moscow more diplomatic leverage in the event serious peace talks recommence.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is betting that its own troops can shock the Russians (and the world) in the east as dramatically as they did in the north. If the Ukrainian government was open to a conflict-ending diplomatic resolution a few weeks ago, when Russian forces were stalled outside the big cities, it now considers peace talks to be of secondary importance to the main effort: resisting Russian territorial advancements through the force of arms. From Kyiv’s vantage point, it simply doesn’t make sense to negotiate in earnest when the other side, Russia, has sent all of its ground troops to the Donbas and is beginning to demonstrate a little momentum on the battlefield. Whether Ukraine’s gamble will pay off, nobody can say.
The West is placing bets of its own, wagering that an indefinite supply of heavy equipment to the Ukrainian army and the adoption of ever-stronger sanctions against the Russian economy will, over time, compel Putin to at least sit down and talk seriously. President Joe Biden’s April 21 announcement of an $800 million military aid package to Ukraine, coming only weeks after another $800 million pledge, is yet more evidence that Washington is prepared to keep this up for as long as necessary. Washington is also pushing European allies to do more.
Put simply, the war in Ukraine is starting to take the shape of a high-stakes poker game. Each side believes they hold the cards necessary to win. Russia is hoping the West’s solidarity will slowly begin to crack the longer the war goes on, while Ukraine and the West are anticipating that the longer and more costly the war is to Russia, the more willing Putin will be to search for an exit ramp. Both, however, may wind up disappointed.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
