Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement from the Supreme Court immediately triggered speculation that a more conservative replacement could be the deciding vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. Whether this would happen immediately, or over time in a series of incremental decisions, or not at all, is a matter of debate. But one thing is for sure – if Roe did get overturned, it would have a transformative effect on U.S. politics.

The Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe decision was one of the most politically consequential events in American history. Modern politics could very easily be divided into the pre-Roe and post-Roe era. The backlash against Roe became a major rallying point for religious conservatives, who have been central to every Republican victory since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 landslide. It played an important role in the shift of Catholics to the GOP. It made judicial nominations into a major issue, forced conservatives into focusing on grooming potential justices and getting them nominated and confirmed, leading to decades of bitter political fights.