Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis., may have predicted his own demise. Unlike most Republican officeholders, Walker has insisted for months that signs of a “blue wave” are real. Democrats, Walker accurately acknowledges, are energized and will likely benefit from an enthusiasm gap in November. His blunt approach has stood in stark contrast to optimistic lines from the likes of President Donald “RED WAVE!” Trump.
But as much as anything, Walker’s pessimism has been a strategy (as reported here), intended to raise the stakes and get potentially complacent Republicans to the polls.
Now, with less than two months until Election Day, the two-term governor is in a dead heat with Democrat Tony Evers, and his numbers seem to be trending in the wrong direction. A Marquette Law School poll released Tuesday found Walker trailing Evers 49-44 percent with likely voters. That’s within the ±4.4 percentage point margin of error. Marquette’s August poll had the candidates tied at 46 percent each. The survey’s sample size was 614 voters.
Walker, of course, fought back an intensely competitive and expensive recall in 2012, and survived similar conditions during his re-election in 2014.
He’s a shrewd politician — and he’s also right about the enthusiasm gap. Marquette’s findings bear that out. On Tuesday, MU’s pollsters reported, “Among Republicans, 64 percent are very enthusiastic, while among Democrats 75 percent are. Among independents, 49 percent say they are very enthusiastic about voting this year.”
“In August,” they added, “69 percent of Republicans and 67 percent of Democrats were very enthusiastic, along with 56 percent of independents.”
By that measure, not only are Democrats more enthusiastic about voting, their enthusiasm seems to be building. Seven weeks is a long time, leaving plenty of room for errors from both parties. And Wisconsin’s Republican Party is a powerful machine that should not be underestimated, as Leah Vukmir’s GOP Senate primary win demonstrated in August.
But Walker’s blue-wave warnings are more than just a fundraising strategy. The governor is right about his own third term being in jeopardy.
