While the Virginia gubernatorial election is a good indicator of how the subsequent midterm elections could play out, this election was different.
This election was a test of how Republicans could perform without former President Donald Trump as a forward-facing figure. The election showed us that the GOP does not need Trump to win.
Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin won with 50.7% of the vote. But it is where these votes came from that gives us insight into the true success of Youngkin’s victory. Youngkin was able to maintain what many are calling the “Trump Coalition.” A coalition of rural voters turned up in larger than average numbers for the former president. Indeed, Youngkin was able to win these rural counties by margins comparable to or even higher than Trump’s numbers in 2020.
While the amazing performances in rural counties are something to celebrate, Youngkin taking back the suburbs is ultimately what won him Virginia. Youngkin won Chesterfield County — a county won by Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam in 2017 and President Joe Biden in 2020. He was also able to take back Virginia Beach County and Chesapeake City, both won by Biden and Northam previously. This coalition of voters could lead the GOP to victory in 2022 and 2024.
How did Youngkin do it? Simple: He ran on issues that matter to voters.
During a debate, Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” This comment came at a time when parents in Loudoun County were demanding that school boards not inject hot political issues into the classroom. This issue of parental input on school curricula did not stay isolated in Virginia — it has become a topic of national discussion.
Youngkin understood what the electorate wanted. He then framed the parental rights issue in a way that appealed to a maximal population of voters.
Still, Republicans cannot sit back and act as if 2022 and 2024 are in the bag. Youngkin’s campaign taught the GOP that to continue winning, it must run candidates who run on issues. Trump is no magic recipe for victory. While Trump endorsed Youngkin, the governor-elect did not campaign with Trump and made his own political identity. The GOP should learn from this example.
Ian Connor Linnabary is the vice president of publications at Gen Z Grow Our Platform and an undergraduate at the University of Utah.
