In the hopes of skewing the Democratic presidential primary further Left than in previous years, California shifted its presidential primary from June to Super Tuesday on March 3, 2020. Fans of Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., have argued that California’s newly enhanced influence on the primary system will give her an edge in the crucial first month of voting. People who argue this obviously don’t know California very well.
On paper, Harris looks like the front-runner in the Golden State:
- a lefty who revels in the prospect of waging war against President Trump
- a well-connected former district attorney and state attorney general
- telegenic
- a woman of color
- and mostly importantly, a Gen Xer who — mostly — doesn’t seem like she’s trying too hard.
But she’s got a California problem. The problem is based in palace intrigue, her prosecutorial past, and identity politics.
While Harris has the adamant support of longtime ally Gov. Gavin Newsom, she does not have the backing of her fellow California Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Feinstein is already on board for former Vice President Joe Biden.
Obama and Biden spent eight years skipping from California mansion to California mansion raising funds and making friends. This year Hollywood royalty, including Jeffrey Katzenberg, Craig Gering, and Jim Wiatt, have already rolled out the red carpet for old “Middle Class Joe.”
As POLITICO now reports, South Bend Mayor and national neophyte Pete Buttigieg is quite literally giving Harris a run for her money. As a gay millennial who’s mostly managed to circle the square between progressive bonafides and unifying, tolerant messaging, Buttigieg has found ample support in the two pivotal epicenters of the state’s power: Hollywood and Silicon Valley. Buttigieg’s backers include Gwyneth Paltrow, Brad Falchuk, and Bradley Whitford.
But Hollywood cash isn’t her only problem back home.
“Kamala is a cop” isn’t just an angry cry by Bernie bros and Trump trolls. The real scars of Harris’ tenure as the state’s top prosecutor still runs deep among Californians, especially in the leftist bastion of the Bay Area. Harris spent years actively expanding civil asset forfeiture, fighting bills to curb the practice and sponsoring those to empower it. She kept Californians locked up in overcrowded prisons to use them for cheap labor to fight wildfires, paying them a dollar a day despite a federal order demanding increased early parole programs. She championed prostitution criminalization and truancy laws that resulted in arresting parents.
Although she launched her campaign by presenting herself as a daughter of Oakland, she spent the better part of her career dallying in the upper echelons of San Francisco society. Her reception by locals was lukewarm at best, and she’ll still have to reckon with her past as the race heats up and opposition research drops.
Harris has always been a long shot in the first three primaries, but her path to the nomination reasonably needs South Carolina — where she’s crucially losing the black vote to Biden — and California. California may not provide the same ‘winner take all’ trap that sank Republicans in 2016, but the state’s absentee ballots will be available before the Iowa caucuses. In a state where some 6 out of 10 residents votes via absentee ballot, that matters. If she fails to clinch her home and the ample votes it provides, she may very well wind up the question that tanked the once promising bid of Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.: If you can’t win your home state, will you win anywhere?
