I happen to be in London at a time when the U.K. government is in turmoil on the eve of both the NATO summit and a visit from President Trump. To say tensions are high is an understatement. British Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to hold on to her government coalition as pro-Brexit ministers are resigning en masse. Brexit negotiator David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson both quit their respective positions essentially to protest May’s “weak” Brexit implementation plan that maintains stronger economic and trade ties with the European Union.
Why does any of this matter to Americans? Because one of our strongest allies is facing its own domestic crisis at the same time that the current administration in the U.S. is engaging in both words and deeds that are straining relationships with some of our nation’s closest friends in the global community. Trump chastised members of the G7, slapped tariffs on imports from Canada and the E.U. in the name of national security, and sent letters to NATO nations scolding their lackluster financial participation in the military alliance. All the while, Trump is advocating for Russia to rejoin the G7, suggesting that the president may be open to acknowledging Crimea as a legitimate part of Russia. Now, Trump is on his way to mainland Europe and the U.K. after weeks of growing acrimony between the U.S. and the continent.
Given the above events of the last month, European leaders are understandably on edge as Trump’s visit approaches, as it is hard to anticipate which Trump will show up in Brussels and London. NATO nations seem to want to push back on Trump’s degradation of the organization, but are also hesitant to push too hard in fears that the U.S. will pull out of the alliance all together.
A weakened British government also makes the climate ripe for challenges to already shaky talks on a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and U.K. In addition, British political leaders need to be careful of the domestic political implications of being perceived as too close to Trump. Major protests are planned for London with a reported 200,000 participants expected to descend upon the city this Friday.
For many in Europe and the U.K., it seems that the U.S., or at least its leader, has thumbed its nose at them, disregarding decades of diplomatic, economic, and military ties. These allies are also bewildered by Trump’s willingness to push them away while simultaneously embracing Russia, a nation whose government has engaged in questionable conduct all around the globe.
It is clear that we are living in an era of change for Western democracies. The rise of populism and protectionism in the U.S., U.K., France, and Italy, to name just a few, are altering the face of the mid-20th century balance of power that once existed. According to the 2017 Democracy Rankings calculated by The Economist magazine, only 4.5 percent of the global population lives in a country that would be considered a “full democracy.” The U.S. was downgraded to a “flawed democracy” back in 2016, and is currently ranked lower than South Korea on The Economist’s list. Italy, France, and Belgium are also among the traditional Western democracies that are considered “flawed.”
For the last decade, there has been a so called “democracy recession” looming. But I don’t think anyone would have anticipated that the U.S. would fall prey to this trend. With so much uncertainty about both our relationship with traditional allies as well as rising domestic tensions inside many European countries, we can only wonder if, when, and how democracy as we know it becomes extinct. The outcome of Trump’s visit may give some insight into what is in store for the future of post-WWII alliances.
Capri Cafaro (@thehonorablecsc) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. She is a former member of the Ohio State Senate, where she was the Senate minority leader. She is now an Executive in Residence at American University’s School of Public Affairs.
