With Bernie Sanders’s surrender in the Democratic primary, the 2020 matchup is clear: Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump. The recent polls look good for the Democrats.
Biden has led Trump in every single head-to-head poll since mid-February, back when the former vice president was a fourth-or-fifth place candidate in the Democratic primary.
Since Biden won South Carolina on Feb. 29, he has led Trump in all 16 head-to-head national polls in the RealClearPolitics scoreboard. RCP’s average, which includes 10 polls going back to March 11, is Biden 49.7% to Trump 43.4%. That’s a massive lead.
Now, these are almost all polls of registered voters, since it’s hard to get a likely voter screen for a general election that’s seven months out. Also, there is no national popular vote, as Hillary Clinton and Al Gore can tell you.
In the swing states, though, Biden is also beating Trump in the polls. Biden has a slim lead in all three March polls in Wisconsin, all three March polls in Michigan, the only March poll in Pennsylvania, and all three March polls in Arizona. If Biden took those four states from Trump, he’d win the Electoral College. Making matters worse, Biden leads Trump in the most recent Florida poll.
These polls, of course, do not predict the future. It’s very obvious these days that we don’t know what the next seven months will hold. Biden has weaknesses that have not been exploited. Trump was underestimated by the polls four years ago.
Still, the national and swing-state polls suggest Trump is starting the general election as the underdog.
