President Trump’s entirely counterproductive, even dangerous, response to the current nationwide unrest makes even more evident the desperate need for a third candidate of substance to enter the presidential race. The good news? There is still time for such a candidate to emerge.
Trump is divisive, destabilizing, and temperamentally unfit to continue in office. Joe Biden increasingly appears unfit in the more traditional sense of the word while also significantly too beholden to the political Left. The nation needs a unifying ticket, one of moral weight and broadly representing the political center, to help restore common purpose in an increasingly polarized society.
The obvious leader of such a ticket would be a military man such as former Secretary of Defense Gen. James Mattis or the recently retired Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford. Or maybe former Adm. James Stavridis. It’s hard to think of anyone else who would attract instant respect, although a few former professional athletes who have done impressive things after sports retirement (perhaps quarterback Steve Young, with his law degree, business success, and philanthropic record) might be able to galvanize a following.
But let’s say it’s Dunford, combined with an interesting running mate such as former congressman Artur Davis, a superb public speaker who was too conservative for Democrats but too liberal for Republicans (or, to keep the sports theme going, former head football coach Tony Dungy — with his famous calm, decency, and philanthropic work). Or perhaps with a tremendously successful business executive such as Pamela Nicholson, who rose from a rental car desk clerk to become CEO of Enterprise, which she led into rapidly successful growth.
Critics who say it is too late for a third candidate to emerge are wrong. In 2016, even after striking out with attempts to get more prominent people such as Mattis to run, conservative and centrist Trump critics chose the previously unknown former CIA officer Evan McMullin remarkably late, on Aug. 8. Even that late, McMullin was a legal vote in 38 states and was actually listed on the ballot in about 30.
Then-consultant Joel Searby, who led those ballot-access efforts in 2016, tells me that with $1 million with which to organize, a third candidate this year could qualify for 30-35 ballots, and “with more money, and especially a strong legal team, it’s certainly possible someone could get on more than that.” (Searby is not involved in any such effort this year.)
It doesn’t necessarily matter that such a late-starting candidate may fail to get 50-state ballot access. A Democrat is going to win California no matter what, and a conservative will win Mississippi. What matters is getting on ballots in states where a third-party competitor might have a chance to win a plurality.
With the right sort of candidate and message, one could easily see our mythical candidate winning an interesting conglomeration of states (for different reasons) ranging from Maine and New Hampshire in the Northeast to the Mountain Time states of Utah, Montana, Idaho, and both Dakotas — perhaps even to Alaska. Other top-tier targets might include Iowa, Arizona, and New Mexico.
If candidate Mattis or Stavridis were to win pluralities (and thus the electoral votes) in enough states to keep Biden or Trump from winning an Electoral College majority, then the election would be thrown to the House of Representatives under a unique set of voting rules. There, almost anything could happen, with new coalitions being built across party lines for one candidate finally to secure the votes of 26 state delegations. The exercise itself would be valuable no matter who wins, just by reinvigorating the lost spirit of cross-party discussion and cooperation. And it’s not at all impossible to see a scenario where the candidate of the middle eventually emerges victorious.
Those who say no independent candidate could catch fire are just wrong. In 1992, businessman Ross Perot actually built a solid polling lead over both the elder George Bush and Bill Clinton until Perot began spouting weird conspiracy theories and precipitously withdrew (temporarily) from the race. There’s no reason, in this year of unrest, why an admired military figure couldn’t rocket to the top just as Perot did — and then, unlike the wild-talking Perot, actually stay there.
There are numerous talented political consultants, and even former political workers like me, who could devise strategy memos and media plans for an impressive independent candidate to run a successful campaign. The need and opportunity are there: It’s time someone takes it.
