Tensions between Israel and the Palestinians are again boiling over. Following an attack earlier this week in which two Israeli police officers were killed, Israel has introduced metal detectors at the entrance to a holy site in Jerusalem.
Not just any holy site, however: The al-Aqsa mosque, one of the holiest in Islam.
In response, Palestinian youths have reacted with outrage. They are attacking Israeli security forces and refusing to cooperate with the new screening arrangements.
Normally, an incident like this might be expected to bubble over. But this time, I’m not so sure.
That’s because tensions in the West Bank have been escalating in recent months. Palestinians are frustrated with the lack of progress towards new peace talks. But their anger is also a function of economic dysfunction. As the International Monetary Fund noted in a study last summer, the Palestinian territories are afflicted by youth unemployment rates of more than 25 percent. The government in the West Bank has done little to alleviate this suffering.
Another problem is that the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing ahead with new settlement construction projects. That choice has inflamed popular antagonism. And while Netanyahu isn’t the core driver behind the settlement expansions, as I’ve explained, he has shown insufficient willingness to resist them.
Regardless, it’s clear that an array of various tensions are now coalescing in Palestinian minds.
Still, Israel has few options. It cannot accept a continuing threat to its citizens — whether police officers or civilians — and obviously must take proactive steps to defend them. In that regard, the establishment of security checkpoints at al-Aqsa was inevitable. Indeed, it may well have been a target of the terrorists who carried out this week’s attack. That said, Israel needs to ensure that it allows efficient access to al-Aqsa for Palestinians of all ages.
There’s one final complication here: Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
In recent weeks, those Gaza-based terrorist organizations have sought to stoke the fires of Palestinian populist anger. They know that bloody exchanges such as the one outside al-Aqsa are a good way to build support and attention. After all, Hamas’ blood-fetish for Jews is not normally an appealing agenda. And it’s already clear that President Abbas is worried about being undercut by Hamas. He’s just suspended all political and security contacts with Israel*. But if the terrorists decide now to launch a new campaign against Israel, they will force the Israeli government to retaliate with force. At that point, what began as a street protest will bubble into a war.
Put simply, this story is one worth paying attention to. The ingredients for a disaster are present.
* Abbas will keep some security contacts open.
