A contested Democratic convention in 2020 is now looking a lot less likely than it did just a few months ago.
Initially, the crowded Democratic field and the proportional allocation rules for delegates combined to make the chances of a contested convention appear like a realistic possibility. Months ago, I wrote about a number of developments, particularly the fractured field, that made the prospects significantly more likely. But the race has changed substantially since I wrote that post.
The largest development is that instead of a situation in which Biden was out in front but several candidates were bunched up behind him, we’re now in a situation in which it’s becoming more of a two-person race between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, with Warren starting to create some distance between herself and Bernie Sanders both nationally and in Iowa and New Hampshire. Every other candidate is in the single digits.
For there to be a realistic chance of contested convention, there has to be at least three candidates sticking around for a long time and absorbing a decent amount of delegates. If Sanders loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, even if he sticks around, he probably won’t be strong enough to deny another candidate a majority.
Another important development, which I wrote about earlier, is that recent polling has shown Warren making gains among black voters. A situation in which the potential Iowa and New Hampshire winner cannot capitalize when the contests move to states with more racially diverse electorates is one in which it’s harder for any one candidate to secure a majority of delegates before the convention. But if Warren can build on early wins by increasing her support among black voters, it becomes much more likely that the party will close ranks, as is typical, and Democrats can avert a contested convention.
Just as the race has changed over the past few months, there are plenty of things that can change this dynamic in the coming months. But for a contested convention to become a reality, we’d need to see multiple candidates doing well in different states and among different constituencies rather than a two-person race.
