Poll finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin is underwater, but Democrats could benefit from an enthusiasm gap

The survey found the senator’s favorability rating down and her unfavorability up. Over the past year, according to the poll, Baldwin’s favorability rating dipped three points, from 40 to 37, while her unfavorability climbed by four points from 35 to 39. That puts her just barely underwater eight months before voters head to the polls in November. To be clear, those shifts are within the poll’s 4.5-point margin of error, but the trend is nothing to ignore for Baldwin. As of November, the Center for Responsive Politics calculated that by a wide margin, Baldwin was the top target of outside spending against Senate Democrats.

Still, Baldwin appears poised to benefit from a sizable enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans. While 54 percent of Republicans said they were excited to vote in this year’s elections, 64 percent of Democrats said the same — a 12-point increase from 2014. Last month, a surprise Democratic victory in Wisconsin’s tenth state Senate district led Gov. Scott Walker and other Republicans to sound the alarm about a potentially enormous enthusiasm gap.

Only two candidates are currently facing off in the GOP primary race to take on Baldwin — Kevin Nicholson and state Sen. Leah Vukmir. Businessman Eric Hovde (who finished second in the 2012 Senate primary) may still jump into the race. The Marquette poll found Nicholson with a lead in the high 20’s, but likely Republican primary voters were largely undecided, with 49 percent saying they don’t yet know for whom they’ll be voting (note the margin of error on that question was higher, at +/- 8.2 percentage points).

The poll found President Trump’s approval rating to be at 43 percent, with 50 percent disapproval, a gap that could benefit Baldwin should it persist into the fall.

The poll was conducted from Feb. 25 to March 1 among 800 registered voters.