One month into the war in Ukraine, there are a few things we can say with some confidence.

First, despite Vladimir Putin’s protestations about the invasion proceeding as planned, the Russian president is almost certainly fuming at just how little progress the Russian military has made. Russian forces are skilled at destroying apartment buildings and lobbing missiles into populated areas. But they appear incapable of ensuring their supply lines are protected and keeping their front-line soldiers motivated. Reports of Russian troops pillaging shops for food are indicative of an army that is either totally unprepared for anything more than the most symbolic Ukrainian resistance or which strongly believed the entire operation would be over in days.