A new edition of al Qaeda’s magazine, Inspire, has just hit the web. As the Middle East Media Research Institute notes, it hits a lot of hot topics.
Two immediate points stand out. First, the article is written by Ibrahim al-Asiri, an exceptionally talented bomb maker for al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Mr. al-Asiri’s determination to hide explosive devices in underwear, printers, and laptops is why western counter-terrorism authorities worry about those items getting on board passenger aircraft.
Second, the article was written prior to President Trump’s inauguration; referencing only Obama, not the current president. Nevertheless, al-Asiri’s thoughts are worth our consideration.
For a start, at least one element of the terrorist’s article is inadvertently amusing. The bomb maker shows that al Qaeda’s continues to be obsessed with homosexuality. President Obama’s support for gay rights, al-Asiri laments, is proof that America is doomed. “When a president comes out joyfully to proudly legislate these perversions, lighting up the walls of the White House with their perverted rainbow symbols indicating that they have adopted these morals. This collapse in morals and values, which is generally rejected in nature, all religions and denied by medical doctors and psychologists; has exposed the concealed nature of globalization and the reality of American democratic values.”
I think he doth protest too much. After all, Google trends indicates that an internet search for “gay videos” is proportionately three times higher in Pakistan than in the United States. Google also suggests that Pakistan’s northwest frontier province (top al Qaeda territory) is the region with that nation’s second highest number of such searches.
Still, there are deeper concerns with al-Asiri’s latest statement. Most obvious is his explicit threat against train networks. This represents both al Qaeda’s weakness and its innovation. Weakness, because train networks are far more vulnerable to attack than hardened targets such as the Pentagon, and thus traditionally less prestigious from the al Qaeda mindset. By prioritizing these attacks, al Qaeda is admitting that its glory days of 9/11 are over. It lacks the confident-capability to be able to carry out “spectacular” multi-pronged attacks.
Innovation, because al Qaeda is clearly doubling down on the Islamic State model of inspiring followers into attacks. While al Qaeda has shown openness to this model in the past, al-Asiri’s reference to “lone Jihad heroes” and “lone warriors” is a formal signal that the ISIS model is now an al Qaeda priority. The group, once famed for its elitist self-obsession is now willing to accept recruits by the sole merit of their action.
The letter also suggests that al Qaeda is pivoting away from inflicting civilian casualties as its main goal, and toward economic damage. That’s because al-Asiri claims that one successful attack on an American train will cause durable, attritional success over the longer term. In response to an attack, al-Asiri asserts, the U.S. response will necessitate an “increase in security forces and labor hours, purchasing sophisticated equipment, establishing new special units to specifically face these threats and reinforcing counter intelligence efforts to disrupt any attempt of another attack whatsoever.” He even adds that insurance companies will have to increase the premiums they charge train operators.
To some degree, our reflex for higher security expenditures does indeed play into al Qaeda’s hands. We must always remember that the terrorists don’t simply want to kill us, they want us to retreat into our ourselves and yield to our fears. At the same time, al-Asiri’s re-emergence reminds us not to ignore an evolving threat.
If nothing else, this letter is proof that al-Asiri is long overdue for a hello from a hellfire missile.
