Israel has been at war with Hamas since the start of the second intifada in 2000. This was accelerated by the Israeli disengagement from Gaza in 2005, leading to Hamas’s victory over Fatah in the Palestinian legislative elections in 2006.

Since then, Israel has fought short, violent wars in 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2021, with clashes in between. It’s become a familiar cycle to both parties. There are no coincidences or surprises within this aspect of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; there is never a definitive end in this war the Israeli military and national security community refer to as the “war between wars.” But while the cycle and actors are predictable, the larger threat grows from war to war with the increasing support for Hamas from Iran, Qatar, Turkey, and Malaysia.