Heading into Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, Pete Buttigieg is the man to beat.
The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor staged what could be considered an upset in Iowa’s Democratic caucuses, surging past Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren into a virtual tie for first place with Bernie Sanders. Now, the Buttigieg campaign is scrambling to replicate its strong Iowa performance in New Hampshire.
In the latest polls, Buttigieg is still ahead of Biden and Warren. But Sanders continues to dominate with 27% of the vote, according to a Suffolk University survey, while Buttigieg trails with 19% support.
Buttigieg faces a distinct disadvantage in New Hampshire: Sanders’s home base is next door, and the East Coast tends to favor Sanders’s leftism more than Buttigieg’s self-proclaimed centrism. Buttigieg’s New Hampshire operation is also much smaller than Sanders’s — he’s only spent one-third of what he spent in Iowa, Politico reported.
Still, Buttigieg’s ongoing surge is undeniable. His campaign events in New Hampshire this weekend were overcrowded, according to Politico, and at one rally, campaign staffers had to turn away dozens of reporters and voters because the space was too packed.
Buttigieg’s campaigning strategy worked in Iowa for the same reason it could work in New Hampshire: He’s focusing on historically blue counties President Trump won in 2016, such as Sullivan County, which some of his Democratic rivals have neglected.
“Go everywhere. Talk to everyone, and go places that other people aren’t going — that’s a part of the strategy for the campaign and its surrogates,” said Maura Sullivan, a 2018 congressional candidate who endorsed Buttigieg.
Buttigieg has sold himself as the electable Democrat who can win over centrist and independent voters, or as Buttigieg calls them, the “future former Republicans.” Iowa gave him the proof he needs to show these voters his message works. And voters are taking him seriously, as his recent events in New Hampshire have shown.
Buttigieg is in a strong position, but he’ll need more than overcrowded rallies to beat Sanders on his own turf. And as Amy Klobuchar gains in New Hampshire’s polls, Buttigieg must solidify his position as the Democratic Party’s chosen centrist. But Iowa’s results should be a reminder not to count Buttigieg out just yet.
