The U.S. should support Saudi Arabian retaliation against Iran for its attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
While President Trump is rightly focused on a sanctions-centric rather than military-centric policy towards Iran, this latest attack is intolerable. It was designed and effected to disrupt energy price stability and threaten the global economy. Those responsible, almost certainly Iran’s hard-liner aligned Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, must face significant consequences. Absent those consequences, the hard-liners will be encouraged to keep believing their escalation is clever.
But what should the response look like? And who should carry it out?
Well, I believe Saudi Arabia should take the lead with limited military retaliation against Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The first point here is that Saudi Arabia must deter Iran from believing these kind of attacks won’t invite retaliation. This concern matters in light of Iran’s longstanding belief, not without merit, that Saudi Arabia has been overly timid. To effectively deter Iran from regional aggression, the Saudis must defend their interests.
Still, this is also a personal challenge to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader. Iran is testing the future king. It must know his resolve. The Saudi military is well-equipped but relatively untested. Iran has now given a compelling rationale to update that equation.
But what should be done, specifically?
Well, there are a range of options but strikes against Iranian energy facilities at Lavan and/or Kharg Island, for example, would send Iran a clear message without forcing escalation. If Saudi Arabia is open to a limited strike, the U.S. should support it with open support in international forums, with targeting intelligence, and with a commitment to defend its allies in the event of broader conflict.
I hear the complaints now: Mohammed bin Salman is responsible for the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi and has restricted human rights. Why does he deserve American support?
The question is legitimate, but so is the truth that bin Salman is a critical American partner, and Iran an American enemy. Iran must be deterred. For all his flaws, bin Salman is the world’s best hope to transform Saudi Arabia into a dynamic, non-oil-dependent society in which its citizens — including women — find opportunity and purpose. The alternative is a youth-heavy society living in a desert, lacking a viable economy, and vulnerable to Islamist extremist ideologues: a recipe for Islamic State 2.0.
But Iran would destroy Saudi Arabia’s better future and regional stability if it could. And Iran will regard America and Saudi Arabia as weak if this incident goes without a response. Trump is correct to pursue a diplomatic strategy towards Iran, but this action is far more serious than other Iranian hostile acts in recent memory. It cannot be tolerated.
If it is, more will follow.
