This week the dust is settling from the Republican and Democratic conventions, and the polls are starting to give us a far clearer picture of the state of the 2016 race. Early indications suggest Hillary Clinton will receive a sizable national “polling bump” coming out of the Democrats’ convention, with Republicans having mostly squandered their opportunity on the national stage.

Polling bump or no, for the Trump campaign right now, the only number that should matter is this one: sixty-four. That’s the number of electoral votes Trump needs to flip from Obama states into his own column in order to secure the presidency.