Iran’s attack on two Saudi oil facilities this weekend represents an overt challenge to the U.S.-led international order. The targets were specifically chosen for their ability to disrupt international oil markets and invite global economic uncertainty.
And let’s be very clear about something: Iran is directly responsible.
While the Iranian government and others suggest that the attacks actually came from (Iran-backed) Houthi forces in Yemen, there is no evidence of a Houthi attack. On the other hand, U.S. intelligence, attack site assessments, and the Iranian modus operandi all point toward Iran’s culpability. It is likely that the attacks came from Iran proper, or less likely, from Iranian-controlled forces in Iraq.
First, the technical skill required to accurately hit these targets is significantly beyond the proven capability of the Houthis. And the Saudis — with advanced U.S. support — have a large number of advanced radar and ballistic missile tracking capabilities focused on missiles launched from Yemen. They would have detected at least some of these weapons in flight. But as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted on Sunday, there is “no evidence” of a Yemeni launch.
Second, the U.S. and Saudi governments both confidently assess Iranian involvement. A top Saudi official on Monday noted that “all indications are that weapons used in both attacks came from Iran.” He added that the Saudis were now investigating “from where they were fired.” The United States has also released satellite photos of the damage. Even though the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency’s corollary analytical assessment hasn’t been released, the satellite photos are clearly compelling. One image from the Abqaiq facility, for example, shows impact strikes at the same specific point on four different silos. That exceptional precision indicates either a ground attack at the site, laser-guided strikes, or the use of drones. The two first options appear to have been ruled out and the Houthis do not have this advanced drone capability. Iran, however, does.
Third, the nature of this attack fits with recent Iranian operations in the Gulf of Oman. Those actions, also targeting regional energy supplies, were designed to provide Iran with a measure of deniability. Those actions, like this one, also targeted U.S. interests while not directly involving a U.S. target.
The case is already overwhelming. It’s only a matter of time before Iran is proven to be responsible.
