A new poll from the Washington Post shows what journalists at that newspaper seem to think is a counterintuitive result.
They, like Democratic politicians and most other liberals, thought the overturn of Roe v. Wade would energize fans of legal abortion to come out and vote this fall. Instead, it looks like those voters are now less likely to turn out than they were previously — and significantly less likely to turn out than pro-lifers.
Among those who believe the Dobbs abortion decision “is not a major loss for women’s rights,” 70% say that are “likely to vote” in November. Among those who think it is a “major loss for women’s rights,” only 52% say they are likely to vote. Likewise, 66% of those who believe abortion should be illegal say they are “likely to vote,” compared to just 55% who say abortion “should be legal.”
Mind you, these groups are not of equal size. For the moment, the idea that abortion is some kind of necessity has captured the public mind. But pro-lifers are energized and intend to vote, and that’s a good thing.
The group most determined to vote is self-identified Republicans, 74% of whom say they are “likely” to go to the polls. Only 62% of self-identified Democrats are “likely” to vote.
But the lesson here, and this is certainly not the first time it has cropped up, is that abortion may not be the lifeline that Democrats were looking for to save them in 2022.
