Republicans have tax cuts and the Supreme Court to tout on the campaign trail from now until November, and it’s no coincidence they hope to vote on both again before midterm Election Day. But is it enough?
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, unveiled the framework for “Tax Reform 2.0” legislation this week. Republicans hope to debate and pass a bill that expands last year’s cuts and implements new incentives for retirement and savings accounts this fall. Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement also gave Republicans a valuable opportunity to hold a confirmation hearing before voters head to the polls in November.
Both tax reform and the Supreme Court were already seen by Republicans as key to their midterm message, and now their pitches will be more timely and immediate, with both items in the headlines as voters make up their minds this fall.
But midterm elections are about turnout and the anti-Trump Democratic base is invigorated. Do tax cuts and Supreme Court confirmations get voters to the polls? Tax reform seems likely to help with independent voters, and a second Supreme Court confirmation could boost the GOP base.
It’s culture wars that help Republicans on that front though. It’s framing the Democratic candidate as an existential threat to constituents’ way of life. It’s fears about #AbolishICE, it’s the NFL, it’s #Resistors shouting at people in restaurants.
That framing has been on full display in Senate races, where Democrats are defending 10 incumbents in states Trump won. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., has been depicted by her likely GOP opponent state Attorney General Josh Hawley as an ally of Hollywood, Washington, and Wall Street, rather than Missouri. “If you think Missouri should be represented by someone who respects our way of life, not a D.C. insider, support this campaign today,” Hawley said in a Thursday fundraising email. The Hawley campaign used similar “way of life” framing in a statement after Trump announced Judge Brett Kavanaugh as his Supreme Court nominee. “Missourians deserve a Senator who will fight for our way of life and support a constitutional conservative like Judge Kavanaugh,” Hawley argued.
In his bid to oust Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., Matt Rosendale has also invoked the state’s “way of life” more than once. “I’m in this race to get the government off our backs and to protect our Montana way of life,” he assured voters in a June statement.
It’s probably not a coincidence that state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has invoked the West Virginia way of life in his campaign against Democratic incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin as well. “Too many liberal elites in Washington want to bring our president down because they don’t share our values or respect our way of life,” he said at a campaign event with Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday. In a June post slamming Manchin for his stance on the border wall, Morrisey tweeted, “Liberal Joe can’t keep his story straight. I will always support West Virginia and our way of life, not the liberal elite in Washington.”
The first and second waves of tax reform and Supreme Court fights will be helpful to Republicans this fall. But with an energized #Resistance, the key to matching or exceeding Democratic turnout probably won’t be policy messaging for the GOP.
