Many have described the 2022 midterm elections as the most consequential election of our lifetimes. It’s a familiar refrain that gets used each election cycle.
Such an apocalyptic description of voter choices on Nov. 8 is certainly overblown. But the importance of this year’s elections shouldn’t be minimized. The results are sure to affect not only the remainder of President Joe Biden’s term but the Republican Party’s big 2024 plans going forward.
THE GEORGIA VOTER SUPPRESSION MYTH
The Democratic Party is floundering, to say the least. Biden’s leadership is insufficient for the many tasks at hand. The president’s approval ratings were never stellar, but now they hover around 40%. Whatever bump the party enjoyed following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision on abortion in June has all but faded. Inflation and other kitchen table topics continue to be chief concerns for voters of all political stripes. Add to that the real and perceived hostilities of a party that continues lurching toward progressivism, and it’s a recipe for disaster.
It’s clear that Democrats must brace for election night disappointments. The Biden administration is not as optimistic as it once was, and for good reason. FiveThirtyEight shows Republicans are likely to take back the House. In the Senate, it could go either way. Once the dust settles, it looks to be a discouraging midterm cycle for the Left.
TRUMP GIVES STRONGEST HINT YET AT 2024 RUN
The Right may very well feel emboldened as a result. But this should not translate to a gamble in the form of thrusting former President Donald Trump back into the presidential spotlight.
Whether it’s a full-on red wave or at least a partial one, the GOP should be resolute in its next step: Trump should not be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.
It’s tempting to believe decent or better GOP midterm elections showing is enough of a mandate to entertain another Trump run. That is a losing strategy, no matter how much Trump’s core base might desire it.
Despite Trump’s achievements in office, his repeated lies about the 2020 election serve as the major red flag in the case against him. Conservatives are right to scoff at Democratic Party claims that what’s at stake in these midterm elections are the foundations of democracy itself. The idea that a vote for anything other than a Democratic Party candidate is a vote to ruin the country is absurd. Fearmongering is not likely to win any converts among those who remain undecided.
But the alternative argument is no good, either. Viewing Trump as either the savior of the party or country and deserving of another chance at the presidency isn’t supported by all manner of evidence. The Republican Party should not select an unserious man who embraces conspiracies and throw him into the ring for a third round.
But Trump wants back in the spotlight.
During an interview with CBS News on Oct. 1, former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway was clear about Trump’s desire to return to power. Speaking to Catherine Herridge, Conway said: “I think once those midterms are done, President Trump can assess the timing of his announcement. I will tell you why he wants to run for president — Donald Trump wants his old job back.”
Conway indicated an announcement by Thanksgiving is possible.
Whether wanting influence amounts to full-fledged support remains to be seen. There’s no doubt Trump remains a popular and influential fixture on the Right despite his history of and interest in near-constant provocation.
Election victories are not a directive to take a chance on Trump again. The success of any measurable kind at midterm elections says much about the party in power. Biden is failing to direct or sustain the country in a way conservatives want. This was expected.
However, there is no guarantee that a second attempt by Trump to beat Biden would result in a different outcome. In fact, the events and fallout of Jan. 6, and lingering attitudes about it, could very well make Trump even less likely to beat the Democratic Party nominee in the next round. Conservatives should not abandon principles for just a chance of success. Winning in and of itself is not a virtue.
Trump’s achievements as president are the kind that could have been accomplished by any Republican president. Treating them as singular to him is just another product of politician worship. The negative aspects of his presidency, including words, behavior, dismissal of norms, and rejection of the truth, are his personal brand. Others, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, represent a consistent and experienced, but much more appropriate and personally contained, kind of candidate the GOP desperately needs.
Lessons learned from the midterm elections should be all about going forward, not backward. Choosing Donald J. Trump again would be going backward. Trump’s unchecked narcissism should not be rewarded. The strategy only hurts causes conservatives care most about: the unborn, education, national security, defense, immigration, and the like. If truth and decency aren’t core values seen in those chosen to lead, there is no reason for anyone to take seriously Trump’s claims of being a conservative on other issues.
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A red wave is a good thing. It certainly doesn’t mean an end to democracy as we know it. But it also shouldn’t mean entertaining the prospect of Trump as lead Republican once again. That time has passed. There is no reason new victories should inspire a return to defeat.
