The self-proclaimed progressive wing of the Democratic Party still doesn’t get it, but plenty of reality-based people are finally realizing that debt levels in the U.S. and worldwide, public and private, have entered a serious danger zone.
CNN devoted considerable time this morning to Wednesday’s report that the official national debt at the end of 2018 was the tiniest hair short of $22 trillion, up a stunning 10 percent just in President Trump’s two years in office. Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal featured a special section devoted entirely to the American and world debt problems.
“The world has never had as much debt as it has right now – nearly $250 trillion,” reported the Journal. Worse, the “biggest borrowers” are “the U.S., China, the Eurozone and Japan, which [together] have more than two-thirds of the world’s household debt, three-quarters of corporate debt and nearly 80% of government debt.”
Why is it worse for the big economies to be laden with record-breaking levels of debt? Because that leaves nobody bigger than they to provide a backstop if defaults start to grow. When Greece faltered, for example, at least the European Union (and others) could step in to temporarily save the day. Likewise with Portugal and others.
The United States itself crawled out of the 2008-09 financial crisis by trying massive short-term deficit spending along with record-low interest rates. But with deficits already near record highs and interest rates still at levels low by historical standards, there’s no room left for fiscal or financial “stimulus” if things go bad here.
The numbers in the report are therefore quite worrisome. Total U.S. consumer debt (credit cards, student loans, etc.) looks likely to top a record $4 trillion this year. Mortgage debt is approaching its financial-crisis peak of $10.7 trillion. Average per-person credit-card debt stands at $6,826, up 11 percent since 2011. Car-loan average debt of $30,977 was “the highest for any third quarter on record.” Monthly payments on new-car loans also hit a record. Worst of all, “U.S. corporate debt has climbed to roughly 46% of gross domestic product, the highest on record.”
And there has been “a large expansion in the amount of corporate bonds rated in the bottom tier of the investment-grade spectrum, a trend some analysts worry could be giving investors a false sense of security about the safety of their holdings.”
Those are just some of the disturbing numbers and summaries in the Wall Street Journal report. This situation is made worse specifically because the top-line U.S. economic numbers (unemployment, GDP growth, inflation) all remain good. The problem is that government deficits and debt should grow more slowly, or even contract, when the economy is nominally strong. After all, tax revenues from more workers and higher profits should be growing, while the number of people receiving public benefits shrink.
Instead, as the respected, centrist Center for a Responsible Federal Budget recently noted, “the deficit has never been this high when the economy was this strong.” If the economy stumbles at all (and the investment markets certainly seem to be anticipating that it will) the only recourse left for policymakers could be deliberately massive inflation.
All of this is even before Social Security and Medicare go technically bankrupt within about a decade. Unfunded liabilities of the U.S. government are at least $50 trillion, and as much as $210 trillion. So, what happens when debt-ridden China, squeezed by Trump’s tariffs, tries to call in the debts owed it by American customers?
Without serious debt-reducing action by Congress and the president, this won’t end well.
