In the mid-1990s there was a lot of talk in Washington about “triangulation.” The brainchild of Bill Clinton adviser Dick Morris, triangulation referred to Clinton’s strategy, after losing the House and Senate in 1994, of steering a course between conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats in Congress.
Clinton didn’t have a lot of choice. Elected with only 43 percent of the vote (but a big electoral majority of 370 votes) in a 1992 election that included populist challenger Ross Perot, Clinton threw away much of his support early on by pursuing a massive health care reform plan voters didn’t want. In the 1994 midterms, Democrats lost both House and Senate (the House for the first time in more than 40 years) in the Gingrich revolution. Clinton got the message and moved toward the center.
Now Trump is taking office after winning 46 percent and a solid electoral majority of 304 votes. (Trump of course originally won 306 but lost two to faithless electors.) Republicans control the House and Senate. The question is whether Trump will pursue policies voters want him to pursue.
How to do that? By keeping his campaign promises. A new poll by the Wall Street Journal shows the public is eager for Trump to enact many of the things he promised from the stump.
In the survey of 1,000 adults — just Americans, without the likely voter screens used in campaign polling — the Journal asked people which issues are most important for the president and Congress to pursue right now. Not a year from now, not later, but right now. This is the precise wording of the question:
As President-Elect Trump prepares to take office, there are many important issues facing the country. I’m going to list some of these issues. Recognizing that all these issues may be important but that not every single one can be a top priority for the President-elect and Congress, for each one please tell me whether you think it should be an absolute priority for the Trump administration and THIS year’s Congress, it is something that can be delayed until next year, or something that you think the Trump administration and Congress should not pursue.
The top, number-one, most important right-now issue cited by those surveyed: “Keeping U.S. jobs from going overseas.” Seventy-eight percent of those surveyed said it was an absolute priority right now, with only 16 percent saying it can be delayed until next year, and five percent saying it should not be pursued.
Number two on the most important list: “Reducing the influence of lobbyists and big money in politics,” with 66 percent saying it’s a right-now issue, 26 percent saying it can be delayed a year, and seven percent saying it should not be pursued.
Number three on the list: “Funding infrastructure projects to improve roads, highways, and bridges,” with 64 percent saying it’s a must-do issue.
Number four: “Taking an aggressive position against ISIS, including bombing and committing more troops,” with 59 percent saying it’s a top priority.
Number five: “Imposing tariffs on countries who attempt to take advantage of trade agreements,” with 57 percent saying it’s must-do.
Number six, and the final priority that has majority support for immediate action: “Appoint a conservative Supreme Court justice,” with 51 percent saying it’s a must-do.
Does anything look familiar about that list? It’s basically an outline of a Trump campaign speech. It’s a road map for a president who didn’t win the popular vote to become a broadly popular leader.
It’s also not what the leaders of either party in Congress, especially the Republicans who control Capitol Hill, want to do right now, or at least not in the order they want to do it. If Trump follows the Hill GOP, he’ll spend his critical early months in office cutting taxes and repealing Obamacare — things he needs to do, but probably not in those early days when the world will be watching his every move.
The poll shows several agenda items with significant minority support. Forty-six percent of those surveyed said they want first-year action on Obamacare, while 53 percent said it can be put off a year or not done at all. Forty-six percent said they want some sort of action on climate change, while 54 percent said it’s not necessary now, or at all. Thirty-four percent said they want first-year action on cutting business taxes, while 62 percent said it’s not necessary now, or at all.
The sticky part comes on those agenda items that Trump campaigned on but that don’t command majority support for quick action. Trump promised to repeal and replace Obamacare. He promised to cut business taxes. And he promised, virtually every day of the campaign, to build a wall on the Mexico border, which just 21 percent of those surveyed said is a first-year must-do, while 23 percent said it can be put off and 55 percent said it should not be pursued at all.
In some cases, like cutting business taxes, Trump could argue that it’s necessary to take action to address the top priority of keeping U.S. jobs from going overseas. But on several of the others, it’s pretty clear that Trump, if he wants to keep those campaign promises, needs to keep campaigning for them. Even as he pushes the top items on his (and the public’s) agenda, he can pursue a vigorous campaign — after all, he loves rallies — to increase public support for the rest of his agenda, while laying the groundwork for action in Congress.
And it won’t hurt at all if he campaigns against Congress at times. In the new Journal poll, just 35 percent said they have a very or somewhat positive opinion of the Republican Party. Democrats were literally no better, with the same number, 35 percent, having a very or somewhat positive impression of them. (Forty-four percent said they have a very or somewhat negative impression of Democrats, while 43 percent said the same about Republicans.)
This is Trump’s moment. The public’s top concerns are all major Trump campaign items. He can spend his first days in office both keeping promises and doing what the people want. It’s a huge opportunity.
