Early ballot requests, returns in Iowa look good for the GOP

More Democrats than Republicans had returned their ballots as of Friday. Registered Democrats held a 5,219 ballot lead — Democrats 79,751, Republicans 74,532, according to Iowa Secretary of State data as compiled by the Ace of Spades Decision Desk.

But even though Democrats hold a lead, absentee ballot returns is an area where they have long dominated, even in bad years for their party, and by much larger margins than the one we see now.

For example, the Democrats’ lead is much smaller, both numerically and as a percentage, than the lead they held at this point in 2010. Even though Democratic absentee ballot returns are up over their performance in the last midterm, Republican numbers are up by quite a bit more. Nineteen days before the 2010 election, Democrats had returned 60,156 ballots to Republicans’ 41,321. Recall that 2010 was a famously good year for Republicans and famously painful for Democrats.

There is also good reason to believe that the Democrats’ edge, which has been shrinking slowly for the past week, will continue to shrink and could even disappear. Republicans have not only been returning more ballots in the last few days — they have also been requesting more. Democrats have still requested more absentee ballots on aggregate by about 10,000 — 144,000 to 134,000. But Republicans have been closing that gap rapidly — just two weeks ago, the Democrats had an edge in requests of about 40,000 ballot requests.

So has the GOP has finally marshaled its troops and gotten serious about efforts to get out the vote early? Have Republicans learned the lessons of 2012 and improved their ground game in Iowa? Are they reaching low-propensity voters and succeeding in getting them to vote absentee? Is this what we’re seeing in these early return numbers, and does it portend victory for Ernst?

It’s far too soon to know. But if she does win, this will surely be a factor in making it happen.