Who won the vice presidential debate?
According to bettors, Tim Kaine won — or at least didn’t lose by enough to decrease Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning. Her odds of victory ticked up by a tiny 0.5 percentage points.
Going into the debate, at 8:57 p.m., Clinton was a 73.3 percent favorite to win the election according to electionbettingodds.com. Donald Trump had a 24.7 percent chance of winning.
When the debate ended, around 10:34 p.m., Clinton ticked up to 73.8 percent, while Trump remained at 24.7 percent.
That doesn’t necessarily mean bettors think Kaine “won” the debate. In theory, getting through the debate without any major gaffes reduced uncertainty in the election and could have just reinforced Clinton’s advantage.
For the most part, it probably means bettors thought the vice presidential debate didn’t matter much.
Of course, voters might disagree with bettors. If polls released over the next week show Trump and Pence’s numbers improving, bettors will likely move their odds accordingly.
But that’s not how it happened with the first presidential debate. Bettors increased Clinton’s odds of winning the election by 5.6 percentage points during the debate. The polls followed accordingly: in two-way polls, Clinton increased her average lead by 1.5 percentage points. In four-way polls, her average lead increased by 2.1 percentage points.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
