While there is nothing indicative of a national trend in the indeterminate results from Louisiana’s gubernatorial election on Oct. 12, smaller lessons about politics still can be gleaned.
The first lesson is: Money still matters. The second is that the public still devalues political experience in favor of “outsiders.”
In Louisiana, all candidates, regardless of party, run on one ballot. If nobody wins a majority outright in the primary, then the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, advance to a runoff. Last Saturday, moderate incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards received a semi-impressive 46.6% of the vote, while Republican businessman Eddie Rispone nabbed a runoff spot with 27.4% compared to the 23.6% of Republican congressman Ralph Abraham. Another Republican garnered 8-tenths of a percent, meaning all Republicans combined nabbed a 51.8% majority.
One might think, then, that Edwards is in trouble. If party affiliation were a key factor, he would begin the runoff facing quite a deficit. In Louisiana, though, the “jungle primary” system and political tradition both de-emphasize party, while personal characteristics make a larger difference. It would not be unusual for a significant subset of Abraham backers to consider the steady Edwards, not the fellow-Republican Rispone, as their second choice.
Then again, conventional wisdom says Republicans tend to turn out more regularly than Democrats in Louisiana runoffs if there aren’t other elections on the same day nationwide. (United States Sen. Mary Landrieu narrowly bucked that wisdom in 2002, but that was an exception.) If Edwards can’t energize his “base” voters, especially African Americans, he will face an uphill battle even if he grabs some of Abraham’s support.
Much could depend on which state legislative races and local offices face runoffs as well. If there are more runoffs in GOP-heavy jurisdictions than Democratic ones, then Rispone would benefit even more from higher Republican turnout. Contrarily, if there are more runoffs such as the one for a state House seat in uptown New Orleans, featuring two moderate Democrats who emerged from a seven-person Democratic field (no Republicans ran), Edwards could be in good shape.
It usually takes political junkies about a week to analyze all these runoff factors, so it’s still not clear which party has a built-in edge.
Even if Republicans try to nationalize this race, then, on the theory that a conservative, pro-Trump state will vote Republican, all of these local serendipities probably will matter more.
Still, as noted above, there are lessons. When Rispone entered the race, he was unknown to the general public and had no obvious political base. The traditional Louisiana Republican finance chiefs all fell in line behind Abraham, the congressman who seemed the logical best shot to force a runoff with Edwards.
Rispone, though, is a wealthy businessman who was able to pour some $11 million of his own money into the race. In contrast, Abraham’s campaign spent only about $3 million.
Rispone used that cash edge to create an image as the reformist outsider bringing the proverbial “businessman’s touch” to government, against all the insiders. It was enough for him to pull what once would have been seen as a large upset, by vaulting past Abraham into the runoff.
Some might say this just shows the “Trump model” still rules. Others might say Rispone’s success shows that it is the businessman-outsider model, not Trump’s own persona, that works in today’s politics.
Either way, regardless of party, voters seem none-too-impressed with the status or experience of elected officials. Until further notice, the lesson may be that the best way to become an elected official is to have never been one before.
