An iconic brand like Nike does nothing on a whim. They focus-grouped their Colin Kaepernick ad. They tested it. They asked sample audiences. And based on what they learned, they launched an ad campaign that they knew would alienate a lot of people. The results of their testing told them that using Kaepernick, along with the word “sacrifice,” would be financially worth it.
No one is giving Nike (or its ad agency, Wieden+Kennedy) credit for testing this ad. They didn’t make this decision in a vacuum. They made a calculated choice that they think will sell more products.
[More: Trump spikes Colin Kaepernick campaign: ‘I don’t like what Nike did’]
What did Nike see that we don’t see? For this ad to get approved, two things must have shown up in the data:
1. Nike’s target audience sees Kaepernick as inspirational and groundbreaking. That’s the constant theme with Nike ads, and why they use athletes who are one-name-famous: Jordan, Jeter, Serena, Ronaldo, Kobe. These are people who change and elevate the game. I wouldn’t say Kaepernick quite falls into that category. It’s also highly unusual for Nike to roll out sponsorship of an athlete who’s not currently playing professional sports.
2. The audience likes Kaepernick enough that their spending will outweigh all dollars Nike loses from people alienated by the ad. And make no mistake, that ad alienates a lot of people. Morning Consult conducted 8,000 interviews of American adults both before and after the Kaepernick ad announcement. The survey found a 10 percent drop in likelihood that someone will purchase Nike products, with an 18 percent drop for Generation Z alone. Morning Consult also found a drop in Nike’s favorability among Democrats, African-Americans, and millennials.
This might surprise you, but it probably doesn’t surprise Nike. They were willing to take a momentary hit so that they come out on top in the long term. (The Morning Consult study measured reaction to the Kaepernick announcement and image, not the video ad. It features young people and could very well win back favor for Nike, and for Kaepernick.)
If Nike made the right diagnosis here, the country is in trouble. Their American audience skews young. “Two-thirds of Nike’s U.S. athletic sales are to consumers under 35 years of age,” according to AdAge. I wonder what percentage of Nike buyers in the 35-50 bracket are parents buying Nike for their kids, and at the kid’s request.
One question remains: Will people buy it? The end goal, of course, is for people to buy Nike apparel, but that doesn’t happen unless they mentally buy into Nike’s branding first.
They will buy that Kaepernick sacrificed everything, when instead he opted out of a contract with the 49ers and later turned down a contract with the Broncos. The Nike audience will buy that wearing a Fidel Castro shirt is an OK thing to do, and that donating money to a cop killer’s family is just part of standing up for what he believes in, which we’ve been brainwashed to think is always good. We like “taking a stand.” We don’t spend enough time asking what, exactly, someone stands (or kneels!) for.
If young people buy into this, and Nike is betting they will, it means that the wokest generation in history cannot be bothered with nuance.
You can oppose police brutality and still think Kaepernick’s “pig cop” socks went too far. You can hate police brutality without wearing a Fidel Castro T-shirt and praising Cuba’s literacy rate, like Kaepernick did. (You’d think an opponent of police brutality might have something to say about Fidel’s firing squads.) You can believe police brutality is a real problem and still find aspects of this country worth standing up for. The ad doesn’t ask you to make a judgment about police brutality. It asks you to make your call about Kaepernick.
The commercial puts Colin Kaepernick in the mix not only with Serena and LeBron, but with other athletes who are lesser known but no less inspiring. The clip shows Charlie Jabaley, who beat brain cancer and became an Ironman triathlete. It shows a boxer in a hijab and a high school homecoming queen who’s also a linebacker. Nike deserves credit for the ad’s inclusivity. It shows action shots of a young wrestler with no legs and Shaquem Griffin, a Seattle Seahawks player who has one hand. At the end, Colin Kaepernick is revealed as the narrator. He says, “Don’t ask if your dreams are crazy. Ask if they’re crazy enough.”
It’s good advice, even if you think he’s the wrong messenger. Nike thinks he’s the right one. Something in Nike’s vast knowledge base told the company that its viewers see Kaepernick’s crusade on par with those of marginalized or disabled athletes.
Nike is betting that consumers think Kaepernick belongs in that group. Nike is showing us what the best minds in the industry know about how young people process social issues. We’d better listen up.
Angela Morabito (@AngelaLMorabito) writes about politics, media, ethics, and culture. She holds both a bachelor’s and master’s degree from Georgetown University.
