Ben Carson likes to say there are two Donald Trumps, the hyperbolic candidate we see on the stump and the thoughtful, pragmatic businessman he has spoken with in private.
In the Republican presidential race, there have been two Trumps in public: the confident leader who can solve any problem and the tantrum-prone candidate who says his party’s nomination rules are unfair and blames any losses or setbacks on opponents’ foul play.
That was certainly Trump’s reaction after losing Wisconsin, asserting without evidence that Ted Cruz illegally coordinated with the super PACs who worked against Trump in the Badger State, where he lost by about 13 percentage points.
But the entire basis of Trump’s appeal is that he is a master negotiator, a skilled deal-maker who can bring people to the table together to get things done. What he lacks in policy expertise and governing experience, he can make up for in managerial prowess and his skills at hiring the right people.
Even in the rare situation where Trump doesn’t know what to do himself, he can identify someone who does and bring them aboard. Any deadweight that isn’t getting the job done will hear his cold television catchphrase: “You’re fired!”
So why can’t Trump bring together the Republican Party after winning 20 states and amassing a sizeable delegate lead? Why hasn’t he put together a world-class campaign organization and fired the people who keep getting outhustled by Cruz in caucuses and the vital state-level hunt for delegates?
Wisconsin made Trump’s path to the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination more difficult. But even if he falls short, why can’t he cut a deal that gets him to a majority at the Republican National Convention?
Sure, politics is different than business (though that is an argument that cuts against Trump as much as it helps him here). There is an entrenched establishment that doesn’t want to cede power to an outsider like Trump. There are angry supporters of other candidates who don’t want to see the billionaire nominated. And believe it or not, there are people who have sincere disagreements with Trump that can’t be negotiated away.
Nevertheless, these are legitimate questions for Trump. His larger than life persona and mastery of the media has helped him bond with a large slice of the Republican primary electorate. He has been like the precocious student who can easily pass a test without studying. But this has taken him as far as it can.
Trump needs organization to win the remaining delegates he needs to secure the Republican nomination. He needs diplomacy and negotiation to bring together the party he has divided in the process of becoming its front-runner. He needs persuasion to expand beyond his base of true believers and add cars to the Trump train.
Instead Trump has been doubling down on the things that have worked for him in the past. That strategy may appear to have been validated if, as expected, he wins New York in a landslide and puts Wisconsin in his rearview mirror.
But there are growing signs of disarray and discord within Trump’s campaign. He has gained less ground than Cruz in the national polls and won fewer delegates since the field has winnowed, maintaining his front-runner status because he enjoyed such a large advantage to start with. His once cordial relations with Cruz have become acrimonious, and his head-to-head numbers against Hillary Clinton have deteriorated.
These last two problems will further curtail the already limited appetite among Republicans for doing him any favors if he arrives of the convention just short of a majority.
Running a campaign and running a country aren’t the same thing. If it were, Barack Obama would be headed to Mt. Rushmore rather than mediocrity. But Trump has a chance to show us that his boasts about the unique skillset he’d bring to the Oval Office are true.
GOP establishment machinations aside, Trump can prove he is a consummate deal-maker and manager by getting himself out of the mess he’s made of a once-promising presidential campaign. Or he can complain about the unfairness of it all while failing to back up his braggadocio.
If Trump wins the nomination, either by nearly running the table in the remaining primaries or by prevailing at a contested convention with both the conservative movement and the Republican establishment lined up against him, he will have earned it.
And if Trump loses? Maybe his business acumen wasn’t so transferable to the political realm and he was really never up to the job after all.
