After months of anticipation answered only with delayed deadlines and announcements of new talks, a trade deal with China might actually be close. That would mean an end to punishing tariffs, an end to explainers about why trade deficits aren’t a problem, and better relations with Beijing. Right?
Not quite.
A trade deal, even the best kind of agreement that removes barriers and offers real, enforceable protections, is not a miracle pill that will recast Beijing as a friend and ally. China is not going to abandon its Belt and Road Initiative. Huawei isn’t going to cut all ties with the Chinese Communist Party. The People’s Liberation Army isn’t going to stop building up the South China Sea and carrying out provocative exercises near Taiwan.
Likewise, the U.S. isn’t going to drop its overseas investments or warnings to allies against allowing Chinese-made infrastructure within their borders. Washington isn’t going to pull sales of fighter jets to Taiwan. And the Justice Department isn’t going to drop charges against Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou or put an end to talking about human rights.
That these are persistent disputes and would remain so even after a deal is reached, doesn’t mean that the trade negotiations will have failed. Far from it: It would instead show that in the interest of reaching an agreement, Trump was able to find enough common ground with Chinese President Xi Jinping to iron out solutions and fix a real issues facing the U.S., even if it meant narrowly focusing on trade.
That’s exactly what diplomacy is about. The U.S. isn’t trying to instigate a reorganization of Chinese society, nor could we. We won’t necessarily get all of the changes that we might like to see, but that is the art of negotiation.
A trade deal is just that: a deal to smooth over commerce to the benefit of both countries. With China, hopefully, the trade deal can be an opening for future agreements, but we must recognize that if and when Trump and Xi sign an agreement, that is only the beginning of working out other much more difficult issues.
