Are the wheels coming off the Biden administration?

First is Afghanistan. 

Most people agree that the war has gone on too long. To that extent, Biden’s goal to disengage from Afghanistan was a popular one. But the actual handling of the United States’s pullout has been a catastrophe. Even Democratic officials and liberal pundits say the administration has mismanaged it. It’s hard to believe the president’s credibility remains unscathed.

Second is the pandemic. 

In the early months of his tenure, Biden’s handling of the coronavirus seemed capable and steady. It was a welcome contrast to the chaos of the previous administration for many voters. But perceptions are now changing.

According to the YouGov/Economist poll, Biden’s approval rating for his handling of the pandemic has dipped below 50%. Since early July, his rating has fallen 9 percentage points among all voters, 8 percentage points among Democrats, and 9 percentage points among independents. While the latest Fox News poll continues to show a majority of voters support Biden’s handling of the pandemic, it also shows his approval rating has dropped 10 percentage points since late June. 

With the emergence of the delta variant and the upswing in hospitalizations and deaths, voters perceive an increasingly befuddled administration. And they have become more pessimistic about where this nightmare is going.

The third problem for Biden is the far-left flank of his party. 

Think about what’s going on in Congress and how it looks to centrist Democrats and cross-pressured independents who cast votes for Biden last year: Progressives in the House, endorsed by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are holding hostage their own president’s prized infrastructure bill. If Senate Democrats don’t give House Democrats the $3.5 trillion grab bag of new entitlements and social programs they’re demanding, they’re threatening to kill the infrastructure bill in retaliation. 

With friends like that, who needs enemies?

While the substance of the infrastructure bill made Biden look strong and competent, the politics of the $3.5 trillion bill risk making him look weak and inept.

Staunch liberals have also pushed the Democratic Party dangerously to the left on the crime issue. Demands to “defund the police” sound increasingly unhinged at a time when violent crime is rising. Democratic candidates running next year in swing states and districts are struggling to distance themselves. A Washington Post/ABC News poll found that 59% of voters believe crime is an extremely serious or very serious problem — and only 38% approve of Biden’s handling of it.

Fourth is the border crisis. 

A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found that only 33% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the “immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border.” While Democrats continue to defend the administration for doing its best in a complex situation, they have yet to explain in clear, factual terms what is really happening. 

Vice President Kamala Harris, who was supposed to find solutions, has so far bungled the task. Her negatives are now higher than her positives: The YouGov/Economist poll found that Harris is 31% favorable and 60% unfavorable among independents — the all-important swing voters who decide general elections.

While these red flags are troublesome for the administration, history teaches us to exercise caution before we reach hasty conclusions about a presidency in its first year. Circumstances can change.

Of course, Biden and the Democrats have one life raft in this sea of troubled waters —

and that’s the opposition party. If Republicans look backward instead of forward, if they fail to explain their own governing agenda and neglect policy substance in favor of attending to former President Donald Trump’s personal grievances, they will give Democrats a gift they greatly need — something to run against.

Ron Faucheux is a writer, pollster, and nonpartisan political analyst. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a newsletter on polls.